4:10pm ET - Guardians @ Mariners
A mid-afternoon outing between Seattle and Cleveland will decide who comes out on top of this three-game series.
The Mariners (3-3) defeated the Guardians (4-2) in game one by a score of 5-4, and then lost the next night 5-2.
Seattle will rely on their high velocity right-hander George Kirby to set them up for success. Kirby, in his first outing of the season, threw six scoreless innings against the Red Sox, allowing just two hits. He racked up eight K’s and walked only two batters.
Cleveland has begun their 2024 campaign red hot in the batter’s box vs RHP. In 178 plate appearances they have marked a 125 wRC+ and a wOBA of .332.
Conversely, the Mariners will be seeing a lefty this evening. The Southpaw Logan Allen, will make his second start of the year after posting an outing of five innings pitched with three runs allowed on six hits. He did not walk any batters and tallied three strikeouts against the A's.
Courtesy: Jamie Squire / GettyImages
Now, Allen did surrender two home runs, and his ERA shows 5.40, and his FIP is 7.37. However, there is no need to overreact. It was his first start of the year and his projected metrics display that it wasn’t as concerning as it may have appeared. His expected FIP (xFIP) is listed at 3.40, which is more than acceptable.
Seattle’s offense leads the league in wRC+ vs LHP, though they have only 11 plate appearances vs them. So we really can’t take away anything from what they’ve done against that type of pitcher so far. They were an above average lineup against southpaws last season, though: 111 wRC+ / .329 wOBA.
The betting market is what makes this game stand out to me, aside from an entertaining pitching duel. Circa Sportsbook opened the Mariners as a -159 favorite and we have now seen that dip to -147.
I concur with the alteration in the line. There is too high of a tax being dealt in order to bet this Seattle group - at least in this particular situation. The Guardians have a solid pitcher on the bump and their offense has been performing efficiently. I believe it’s worth taking a stab on the sizable plus price here.
Play: Guardians Moneyline (+135); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.35
8:10pm ET - Blue Jays @ Astros
Cristian Javier, in his '24 debut against the Yankees, went six innings, allowed four hits, no runs, one walk and six strikeouts. That was a much needed effort out of the right-hander who struggled last season (4.56 ERA, 4.58 FIP).
Tonight, Javier faces the Blue Jays - a team that he has started two games against (1-1, 5.23 ERA). Toronto hasn’t necessarily been lighting it up against RHP so far this season.
Granted, it is a small sample size, but, in 142 plate appearances the Blue Jays have a wRC+ of 60 and a wOBA of .245.
If we flip the script and look at Houston, we can see that they have endured 161 plate appearances vs RHP, and have accumulated a wRC+ of 133 and a wOBA of .345.
The Astros will face RHP Chris Bassitt. In his first start of the year, he went 5.0 IP, surrendered six hits and five runs. Bassitt is 5-3 with a 3.72 ERA in 13 career appearances against Houston.
Tonight is the third and final game of this series, with Houston claiming the first game (10-0) and then Toronto winning last night (2-1). I expect the Astros to come out on top of this rubber match.
The best price that I have witnessed on the home team’s moneyline is available at BetRivers, and it is -134. I would recommend a wager on it up until the odds of -140.
Play: Astros ML (-134); Risk 1.34 units to win 1.00
7:40pm ET - Rockies @ Cubs
The Friendly Confines have been absolutely electric in the two games the Cubs have played there this season. Despite the frigid weather conditions, the bleachers have been rocking. There’s truly nothing like the Northside of Chicago when the Cubbies are playing well.
It also helps when they are going up against one of the worst teams in baseball - the Colorado Rockies.
Chicago defeated them in the first game of the series 5-0 and then last evening 12-2.
Tonight the Cubs will implement a bullpen-style rotation with a chance to sweep on the line. Luke Little (LHP), pitched a scoreless and hitless ninth inning yesterday, and will be delivering the first round of action on the mound this evening.
Normally I am not an advocate in backing teams that are utilizing this strategy, however, Chicago’s bullpen should be ready for this meeting. Over the last two games, the Cubs’ starters both completed six innings of work, which left six innings of necessity for their bullpen. They haven’t really been taxed and should be able to work deep.
Plus, it helps when you’re going against a Colorado offense that is dead last in wRC+ (46) and 23rd in batting average (.204).
Tonight’s weather forecast calls for more brutal conditions, with winds blowing in at upwards of 23 miles per hour and temperatures of sub-40 degrees. That didn’t stop this Cubs’ offense the past two games and I don’t believe it will fully limit it in this meeting either.
The right-hander Cal Quantrill, will get the nod from the Rockies. In his lone start this season, he went five innings, allowed five runs on nine hits and two home runs. That gave him an ERA of 9.00 and a FIP of 8.77.
One could argue that we can’t take much from that considering it's a one game sample size - and that’s fair…to an extent.
I say to an extent because if we take a gander at his 2023 stats - and even beyond that - it’s clear he is just not a reliable arm.
In 2023, Quantrill threw over 99 innings, had a 5.24 ERA, a 5.85 xERA, a FIP of 4.79 and an xFIP of 5.43. I wouldn’t be shocked to see similar stats extend into this season.
Chicago is being dealt at around the odds of -200 for this matchup. With a price that steep we should be considering the runline - and that’s what we are doing. Though, instead of the traditional -1.5, I’m going to lay the flat -1. Several books offer that and I sometimes find it to be a viable alternative.
The reason I am doing so for this game is because I don’t want to lay around two dollars to back to outright ML, and the weather gives me hesitation in believing the Cubs will easily produce runs.
With that being said, yes, I clearly still have conviction in Chicago, but just not as much due to mother nature being a major force. So I will lay -1 at the price of -134, which I found at BetRivers in Illinois.
Play: Cubs -1 (-134); Risk 1.00 units to win .75
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