Good afternoon, everyone! We’re coming off quite the interesting night of baseball to say the least. We ended up going 2-2 on the slate, with a game that featured the Diamondbacks blowing a 4-1 lead to the Rockies and the Padres overcoming an 8-0 deficit against the Cubs.
So I suppose we can say the mayhem leveled out for us.
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Mets @ Braves
In the first of this four-game series, the Metropolitans came out on top 8-7. That was a much needed win for New York based on how their season had begun.
Tonight, I don’t think we will see the same result.
The Braves will look to right-hander Reynaldo Lopez to get the team back in the winning column.
In Lopez’s first start with Atlanta, he actually faced his former club - the Chicago White Sox. Despite losing to his old teammates, Lopez had a strong outing. He went six innings, allowing just one run on four hits.
In 2023, Lopez made his rounds throughout the American League. He not only played with the White Sox, but also the Angels and Guardians. In that span of time he managed 66 innings of work, an ERA of 3.27 and a FIP of 3.91.
His opponent this evening features a lineup that ranks 29th vs RHP in wRC+ (71), wOBA (.577) and batting average (.190).
Lopez should be put in a prime position to succeed.
As for the Braves offense, well, they square off against the former Milwaukee Brewer Adrian Houser. In his ‘23 campaign with the Brew Crew - Houser compiled over 111 innings of work, a 4.12 ERA and a 3.99 FIP. Though, his xFIP came out to 4.30.
His '24 debut with the Mets happened at home vs the Tigers. In that game, Houser went five innings, allowing just one run on three hits. He did walk three batters, though, and his xFIP was marked at 5.55 afterwards.
Atlanta’s offense is picking up right where they left off from last season. They rank first vs RHP in wRC+ (164), wOBA (.430) and batting average (.342).
The Braves’ pitching staff has an opportunity to shine against a weaker offense, and I expect their lineup to keep the bats sizzling.
Play: Braves -1.5 (+105); Risk 1.00 units to win 1.05
White Sox @ Guardians
In his second year in the show, the 25-year-old Logan Allen has had quite the productive start.
In game number one he went five innings against the A’s, surrendered six hits and three earned runs, and secured the dub. His second win came in the Pacific Northwest where he pitched 6.2 scoreless innings against the Mariners. He gave up just four hits and racked up six strikeouts.
Perhaps another favorable matchup is in store as he meets a lackluster, injury-riddled White Sox lineup.
The Southsiders have 64 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers so far - and in that span they have garnered a batting average of .153, which puts them dead last in Major League Baseball. Their wRC+ is listed at 47, which is poor enough for the 29th spot.
The Guardians are set to face righty Michael Soroka.
Soroka has pitched 11 innings, worked up an ERA of 4.91 and a FIP of 6.05. Those two outings featured matchups against the Tigers and Royals.
Cleveland is hitting better than both of those teams vs righties. They rank 9th in batting average (.258) and 10th in wRC+ (112).
We’ll also see a sizable discrepancy in each teams' relief staff. The Sox bullpen has a 4.86 ERA with a 5.82 FIP, whereas the Guardians are at the top of MLB with a 1.18 ERA and a FIP of 2.82.
There has been some respect in the betting market trending toward the home team, as Circa Sportsbook opened them at -212, but has since moved to -222.
Of course, that is too expensive; instead, I will be playing the runline where the best price I’ve witnessed is listed at FanDuel.
Play: Guardians -1.5 (-102); Risk 1.02 units to win 1.00
MLB record: 12-10-1 (+1.24)
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