****Added Play****
Sorry for the late notice, but taking a piece of the First Five Under 4 (-110) between the Twins and the Royals. Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00
4:10pm ET - Giants (-105) @ Padres
One of my favorite pitchers to back - Logan Webb - is taking the bump on opening day for his Giants as they take on their division rival Padres.
Webb is someone I grew fond of a couple seasons back; and last year he was my top pick for NL Cy Young.
Though he fell just short, he still produced a heck of a year: 11-13, 3.25 ERA, 2.96 xFIP, 4.9 WAR.
Webb has had some success against this San Diego franchise. He is 3-2 with a 2.50 ERA in 10 games against them.
Unfortunately, Webb did not have a great spring training. However, despite the poor numbers, he actually expressed how he felt rather pleased.
“I know it doesn’t look good, but I’m actually somewhat happy with how I was feeling.”
Hey, you want your pitchers in a good headspace when they take the mound - so I’m ecstatic to hear that.
The opposing pitcher, Yu Darvish, sometimes struggles to have balanced mentality.
Darvish has all the talent in the world, but presents some volatility. He’s coming off his worse performance since his first year with the Cubs back in 2018.
In 2023, he went 8-10 with a 4.56 ERA and a 3.92 xFIP.
Also, throughout his career he is 2-3 with a 6.23 ERA in 11 starts against San Francisco.
These teams did opposite things in the offseason. The Giants added pieces - most notably Cy Young winner Blake Snell, four-time Gold Glover Matt Chapman, and power hitter Jorge Soler.
On the other side, the Padres lost players such as Juan Soto, Josh Hader and the aforementioned Snell.
The betting market seems to be in the same line of thinking as me, which is that the pitching advantage goes with the road team and they have a good enough offense to overcome Darvish. SF opened around +100, but can now be seen as high as -115. The price is varying at every book, so do your due diligence and shop for the best number.
Play: Giants ML (-105); Risk 1.05 units to win 1.00
4:10pm ET - Blue Jays @ Rays
Speaking of line moves, the market displayed just that with the Tampa Bay Rays moving from as low as a -120 to upwards of -140.
I was able to snag -130 earlier in the day and would recommend a play on the moneyline up to -135.
I’ve been waiting for this Toronto team to make a deep run and play to the level of talent that they possess - can they finally do that this season? Maybe. But, for at least today I do not believe so.
The Blue Jays are tossing out Jose Berrios as their first pitcher of the year. Berrios has his moments, sure, but ultimately he’s not a guy I favor backing all that often.
Last season he finished with a record of 11-12, an ERA of 3.65, xERA of 4.51 and an xFIP of 4.01. Traditionally he has pitched more efficiently in the comfort of his home ballpark as opposed to anywhere else.
Plus, this Tampa Bay offense thrived against right-handed pitching last season with a 117 wRC+, which ranked second in the show.
Toronto’s offense will attempt to break the righty Zach Eflin. Eflin is coming off a bit worrisome spring training (8.49 ERA), but he only pitched 11.2 innings. It’s tough to justify some of these numbers before the legitimate action begins, so I won’t put too much weight on that.
Rather, we can reference his full 2023 sample size: 16-8, 3.50 ERA, 3.02 xERA, 3.12 xFIP.
The Blue Jays posted a 106 wRC+ vs RHP.
The Rays aren’t a team that I envision myself putting stock into for the long haul, but I do think in specific spots - such as this one - they are worth backing.
Play: Rays ML (-130); Risk 1.30 units to win 1.00
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