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  • Writer's pictureDanny Burke

MLB Handicapping Handbook - Wednesday, June 26th

Tuesday Recap:


As tumultuous, frustrating, and laden with bad beats as this MLB season has been, following a 4-0 effort with our plays on Monday night with an 0-2 loss on Tuesday seems fitting. 


Naturally, both losses featured blown leads: the Red Sox wasted a 2-0 advantage, while the Nationals collapsed in the 5th inning, surrendering a 4-2 lead. While these were not insurmountable margins, the constant misfortune of this season remains disheartening.


Red Sox -118 vs Blue Jays Loss

Nationals -113 @ Padres Loss


Nevertheless, there’s always an opportunity to bounce back. Let’s dive into today’s action:



Weather Report:


Pirates @ Reds, 1:10 p.m. ET (Great American Ball Park)

  • Winds are blowing from right field to left field at speeds of 9 MPH

  • 76% chance of precipitation 


Braves @ Cardinals, 1:45 p.m. ET (Busch Stadium)

  • Winds are blowing in from left-center field at speeds of 8 MPH

  • 31% chance of precipitation 


Marlins @ Royals, 2:10 p.m. ET (Kauffman Stadium)

  • Winds are blowing in from left-center field at speeds of 11.5 MPH 


Nationals @ Padres, 4:10 p.m. ET (Petco Park)

  • Winds are blowing out to right-center field over 10 MPH 


Guardians @ Orioles, 6:35 p.m. ET (Camden Yards)

  • Winds are blowing out to left-center field around 10 MPH 

  • 54% chance of precipitation 


Blue Jays @ Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET (Fenway Park)

  • Winds are blowing out to center field around 10 MPH 

  • 32% chance of precipitation 


Yankees @ Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET (Citi Field)

  • Winds are blowing out to left-center field at speeds as high as 13 MPH

  • 24% chance of precipitation 


Cubs @ Giants, 9:45 p.m. ET (Oracle Park)

  • Winds are blowing out to center field over 11 MPH



On the Move:


Guardians @ Orioles

SuperBook Opened: BAL (-163) | CLE (+148)

SuperBook Currently: BAL (-182) | CLE (+166)


Marlins @ Royals

Circa Opened: KC (-235) | MIA (+211) 

Circa Currently: KC (-215) | MIA (+195)


Yankees @ Mets

Circa Opened: NYY (-140) | NYM (+128)

Circa Currently: NYY (-130) | NYM (+119)



Burke’s Bets


Mariners @ Rays 


Tampa Bay has found themselves at .500 (40-40) after winning their last six of seven games. 


Two of those victories have come in their current series against the Mariners. 


On Monday night, the Rays won 4-3 and then also came out on top last night 11-3. 


In an attempt to avoid the sweep, Seattle will be backing the arm of George Kirby.


The right-hander has been stellar, boasting a 3.47 ERA, 3.39 xERA and a 3.39 xFIP. 


He is striking out over eight and walking less than one batter per nine innings pitched, has a WHIP under 1.00 and just a 34.7% hard hit rate. 


Tampa’s offense has been picking up the slack, however, the numbers are still average with a 101 wRC+, .685 OPS and a .142 ISO against RHP over the past month. 


The road team’s lineup has produced a bit more, featuring a 106 wRC+, .700 OPS and a .165 ISO in the same time frame. 


They will be opposing Ryan Pepiot. 


Pepiot represents a 4.61 ERA, a 3.81 xERA and a 3.80 xFIP. 


Those numbers aren't too shabby, but what’s concerning is seeing that he’s allowing 1.5 home runs per nine innings, has a 10% barrel rate and a low ground ball rate of 35%. 


Furthermore, on the year, the Rays bullpen has a 4.26 ERA and the Mariners have a 3.74 earned run average. 


I believe Seattle avoids the three-game sweep and escapes Florida with at least one dub. 


Play: Mariners ML (-115); Risk 1.15 units to win 1.00



Guardians @ Orioles


Speaking of avoiding a three-game sweep - we have a similar situation occurring in Baltimore. 


One of the best teams in baseball, the Orioles, are attempting to avoid the same situation as the Mariners. 


The Guardians claimed game one 3-2 and then last night affair by a score of 10-8. 


Baltimore has now lost five consecutive games, which is their longest losing streak of the season. 


Grayson Rodriguez will be the pitcher the home team looks to in an attempt to conclude that pattern. 


The righty has a 3.82 ERA, a 3.81 xERA and a 3.59 xFIP. Plus, he’s striking out over 10 batters and walking less than three per nine innings, along with posting a 7% barrel rate. 


The opposing starter is Carlos Carrasco. He displays a 5.40 ERA, a 4.92 xERA and a 4.31 xFIP. 


Also, the fellow right-hander is allowing 1.4 home runs per nine innings and has a .347 xwOBA. 


Over the past 30 days Baltimore is 1st in wRC+ (148), ISO (.247) and OPS (.878) against RHP. 


Cleveland is 2nd in all of those categories within that span of time. 


When looking at their respective stats from the entirety of the season, the Orioles are 1st in ISO (.208), 2nd in OPS (.768) and 3rd in wRC+ (118). Cleveland sits at 7th in ISO (.160) and then 11th in both OPS (.716) and wRC+ (106). 


The market has shown support for the home team with the expectation of them having the pitching advantage and the incentive of avoiding a sweep and a continuation of their losing streak. 


I will be siding with that belief. 


Play: Orioles -1.5 (+110); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.10



Twins @ D’Backs


Arizona took the first of this three-game series on Tuesday night, winning 5-4. 


Game two could feature a plethora of runs given the expected pitching matchup.


The home team will be throwing right-hander Ryne Nelson on the bump.


Nelson has a 5.18 ERA, a 4.85 xERA and a 4.58 xFIP. His home run to fly ball ratio is over 10%, his WHIP is over 1.50, he has a 9.5% barrel rate and a .345 xwOBA. 


He’s surrendered only three earned runs in his past two starts - he should be destined for a beating. 


On the other side is Simeon Woods-Richardson. 


Despite his 3.26 ERA, his expected earned run average resides at 4.07 and his xFIP is 4.27. 


He, too, has a barrel rate over 10%, a .319 xwOBA and a .190 xISO. 


Over the past month, both of these offenses have been seeing the ball extremely well. 


The Twins have a 125 wRC+, a .786 OPS and a .185 ISO versus RHP. 


The D’Backs have a 118 wRC+, a .767 OPS and a .164 OPS against righties. 


Arizona’s bullpen does not inspire much confidence either, as their collective ERA sits at 4.49. 


Minnesota’s relief staff has been a bit more trustworthy with a 3.76 ERA. 


Let’s look for a heavy dose of runs at Chase Field this evening. 


Play: D’Backs / Twins Over 9 (-110); Risk 1.10 units to win 1.00

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