Tuesday Recap:
Last night concluded with a winner on Michael Lorenzen under 4.5 strikeouts (-105) and a push on the Twins -1 (-120). Overall we went 1-0-1 (+1.00).
Pablo Lopez did not perform well, but luckily those Minnesota bats came through both before and after the rain delay. I'll gladly settle for a push in that situation.
Let's move onto today's card...
Weather Report:
Tigers @ Braves
Wind is coming across from left to right field around 13 MPH
Giants @ Cubs
Another game at Wrigley will feature winds blowing out. This time around 13 MPH, with a slight chance of precipitation. Plus, the temp is near 90 degrees.
Diamondbacks @ Nationals
Wind is blowing out to left-center field over 11 MPH. The temperature will be above 90 degrees, which should cause the ball to carry even more so.
Orioles @ Yankees
Wind is coming across from right to left field around 10 MPH
Astros @ White Sox
There is a chance for rain, high temps close to 90 degrees and wind lightly blowing in.
Dodgers @ Rockies
There is a 33% chance of precipitation during the game and the wind is blowing out to left field over 9 MPH.
Royals @ A’s
The wind is blowing out to right-center field over 10 MPH
On the Move:
Odds via 12:10 p.m. ET
Padres @ Phillies
Circa Opened: PHI (-154) | SDP (+140)
Circa Currently: PHI (-176) | SDP (+160)
Giants @ Cubs
SuperBook Opened: CHC (-120) | SFG (+110) SuperBook Currently: CHC (-105) | SFG (-105)
Mariners @ Guardians
Circa Opened: CLE (-120) | SEA (+110) | Total: 7.5
Circa Currently: CLE (-145) | SEA (+132) | Total: 8
Orioles @ Yankees
Circa Opened: NYY (-167) | BAL (+152) | Total: 8.5
Circa Currently: NYY (-147) | BAL (+134) | Total: 8
Brewers @ Angels
Circa Opened: MIL (-150) | LAA (+137)
Circa Currently: MIL (-177) | LAA (+161)
Pitching Projections:
On the Rise:
Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs Bryan Woo (SEA)
Bibee:
3.94 ERA, 3.79 xERA, 3.53 FIP, 3.40 xFIP
34% Hard Hit, 3.27 SIERA
In Bibee’s last five starts, his xFIP has been below 3.35. In that span he’s pitched 29.2 innings, allowed 11 ER on 23 hits and has struck out 39 batters while walking only 5. Seattle has been a middling team against right-handers this season and we could see that trend continue tonight.
Woo:
1.07 ERA, 1.82 xERA, 2.38 FIP, 3.73 xFIP
215 xwOBA, .088 xISO, 2.2% Barrel, .53 BB/9, 2.4% HR/FB
In six starts, Woo has allowed only four earned runs. Though his sample size is small - it’s very promising. Cleveland, too, hasn’t been dominant against righties, per se. They’ve been slightly above average with a 103 wRC+ and a .150 ISO.
Garret Crochet (CWS) vs Hunter Brown (HOU)
Crochet:
3.16 ERA, 2.36 xERA, 2.72 FIP, 2.44 xFIP
12.63 K/9, 2.07 BB/9, 2.39 SIERA, .246 xwOBA, .128 xISO
The southpaw has been the lone bright spot in what has otherwise been a disastrous season for the White Sox. In his last four starts his xFIP has resulted to being 2.51 or lower and has surrendered a total of five earned runs. Over the past month the Astros have ranked 25th in wRC+ (81) against LHP.
Brown:
5.00 ERA, 3.61 xERA, 4.43 FIP, 3.58 xFIP
52% GB, 34.4% Hard Hit, 4.8% Barrel
The right-hander hasn’t allowed a run in his last 13 innings pitched. And that streak may continue after facing the worst team in baseball. Chicago ranks dead last in wRC+ (77) versus RHP this season.
Ryan Feltner vs Dodgers
Feltner:
5.72 ERA, 3.98 xERA, 4.32 FIP, 3.87 xFIP
46% GB, 38% Hard Hit, 7% Barrel
In his last three games, Feltner's xFIP has displayed 3.08 or lower. Evidently, he’s forcing a lot of hitters into ground ball results while simultaneously limiting hard contact. It’s never tempting to back a pitcher going against the Dodgers, but perhaps he can exceed expectations and keep this one competitive.
Due for Decline:
Kyle Hendricks vs Giants
Hendricks:
8.20 ERA, 5.63 xERA, 6.03 FIP, 4.39 xFIP
.342 BABIP, 22.4% HR/FB, 1.71 WHIP, 4.50 SIERA, .368 xwOBA
Hendricks returned to the starting rotation due to injuries. He stepped in for the injured Jordan Wicks recently against St. Louis and delivered 4.1 scoreless innings of relief. As pleasing as that was for Cubs fans - don’t expect it to persist. Hendricks' underlying metrics have been poor for years, highlighted by his last full start where he gave up seven earned runs to the Pirates.
Taj Bradley @ Twins
Bradley:
4.23 ERA, 4.44 xERA, 4.28 FIP, 3.12 xFIP
19% HR/FB, 14.7% Barrel, .332 xwOBA, .237 xISO
How can you ignore the 14.7% barrel rate from Bradley? It's a miracle that he’s given up just one run in his last 12 innings pitched. Granted, facing the Cubs for seven of those innings certainly helps. Nevertheless, Minnesota is in a groove and could easily cause damage against the young right-hander.
Andrew Heaney vs Mets
Heaney:
4.19 ERA, 4.50 xERA, 4.19 FIP, 4.20 xFIP
.334 xwoBA, .188 xISO
Heaney will be stepping in front of the freight train that is the Grimace-inspired New York Mets. I’ve kept mentioning that incident and their results afterwards in a joking manner, but following their comeback win last night after trailing 6-2, it may be time to take this more seriously. Regardless of Grimace, the Mets lead Major League Baseball in wRC+ (177) versus left-handed pitchers since the beginning of June. And in four of his last five starts, Heaney’s xFIP has resulted in being 4.17 or higher.
Tyler Anderson vs Brewers:
Anderson:
2.58 ERA, 4.66 xERA, 4.69 FIP, 5.09 xFIP
3.9 BB/9, 5.20 SIERA, 9.3% Barrel, .339 xwOBA, .195 xISO
Anderson is defying expectations with his recent success, despite metrics suggesting it's unsustainable. The left-hander has yielded only nine earned runs over his last six starts, allowing just one run in each outing with the exception of four runs versus Houston. Milwaukee's offense has struggled against left-handed pitchers, but Anderson may prove an exception to that trend.
Burke's Bets
Ranger Suarez Strikeouts - 4.5
The Phillies’ left-hander is racking up 9.5 strikeouts in comparison to 1.9 walks per nine innings.
He’s tallied six in each of his last two outings, is averaging 6.5 overall and has eclipsed 4.5 K’s in 11/14 starts.
The Padres have been effective at minimizing strikeouts against left-handed pitchers, ranking 4th with a 23% strikeout rate. This explains why the strikeout prop may be lower than usual.
However, at 4.5 strikeouts, it seems like a good deal and I'm inclined to bet on Suarez surpassing that mark once more.
Play: Ranger Suarez Over 4.5 K’s (-115); Risk .75 units to win .65
Diamondbacks @ Nationals
It’s difficult to ignore a situation in which Arizona is facing a left-handed pitcher, given they rank 2nd in wRC+ (123) and 5th in ISO (.171) against them.
It’s even harder to neglect when you realize the lefty they are scheduled to face is Patrick Corbin.
The 34-year-old boasts a 5.84 ERA, a 6.86 xERA and an xFIP of 4.63.
He features a 14.6% HR/FB ratio, a 5.6% strikeout to walk ratio, a 1.62 WHIP, a 10.6% barrel rate and a hard hit percentage over 48%.
There are many more troubling statistics I could delve into, but I'm sure you get the gist.
Opposing Washington will be the right-hander Brandon Pfaadt.
The 25-year-old has made our “On the Rise” list before, and I’m hoping he can perform to that level tonight.
Despite his 4.38 ERA - his xERA of 3.14 and xFIP of 3.58 will tell you he can produce quality outings, especially against a Nationals lineup that ranks 26th in ISO (.129) and 25th in wRC+ (92) against righties.
Pfaadt has limited opponent’s contact with a hard hit percentage of sub-37% and a barrel rate of 5.7%.
I’m expecting that to continue, along with the atrocities that Corbin has provided for the home team.
The books are offering a cheap moneyline price, relatively speaking.
-154 is the best number I’ve seen and I would play that wager until the price of -160.
What’s odd is seeing the lack of plus money being offered on the runline (-1.5) despite the moneyline being fairly inexpensive.
I certainly project that Arizona will win by more than one run, so I don’t mind a bet on the RL, however it’s just the lack of value that keeps me at bay.
I would’ve envisioned the D’Backs ML price to be around -175, but instead I’m getting 21 cents cheaper.
Play: D’Backs ML (-154); Risk 2.00 units to win 1.30
Hunter Brown Outs Recorded - 17.5
Brown has recorded more than 17.5 outs in each of his last five starts. His average in that span is 18.6 outs recorded.
And as I’ve already outlined, the Astros’ starter can be expected to progress this evening:
Brown:
5.00 ERA, 3.61 xERA, 4.43 FIP, 3.58 xFIP
52% GB, 34.4% Hard Hit, 4.8% Barrel
The right-hander hasn’t allowed a run in his last 13 innings pitched. And that streak may continue after facing the worst team in baseball. Chicago ranks dead last in wRC+ (77) versus RHP this season.
If you can leave your starting pitcher in for a majority of the game and avoid taxing your bullpen more than you need to then you absolutely do so. And you especially do so against a team like the White Sox, who typically don’t pose a threat.
This is another great situation for Brown to showcase his talent and I believe he’ll do just that.
Play: Hunter Brown Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-120); Risk 1.20 units to win 1.00
Tyler Anderson Strikeouts - 4.5 (EV)
5.98 strikeouts per nine innings is what this left-hander is averaging this year. He’s remained under this prop mark in 9/14 outings and I’m banking on him doing so again.
Remember, these are his numbers that display why he could be in for a rough night:
Anderson:
2.58 ERA, 4.66 xERA, 4.69 FIP, 5.09 xFIP
3.9 BB/9, 5.20 SIERA, 9.3% Barrel, .339 xwOBA, .195 xISO
Anderson is defying expectations with his recent success, despite metrics suggesting it's unsustainable. The left-hander has yielded only nine earned runs over his last six starts, allowing just one run in each outing with the exception of four runs versus Houston. Milwaukee's offense has struggled against left-handed pitchers, but Anderson may prove an exception to that trend.
The Brewers should be able to limit their K-rate against a bottom-tier pitcher and hopefully remove him from the game early on.
Play: Tyler Anderson Under 4.5 K’s (+100); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.00
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