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  • Writer's pictureDanny Burke

MLB Handicapping Handbook - Tuesday, June 18th


Monday Recap:


Last night was a poor start to our week resulting in a 1-2 effort (-1.09).


The Phillies did all we needed them to and cruised to a 9-2 victory over the Padres and comfortably covering our runline bet (-1.5, +115).


However, our under bet in South Beach did not hold strong as the Cardinals defeated the Marlins 7-6 in 12 innings. The 7.5 total had already lost heading into the 9th after both teams scored three runs in the 8th, so extras were irrelevant. 


What’s painful, though, is how I mentioned that I really never do full game unders - only first five inning unders; and, naturally, if we would’ve done that it would’ve cashed. Only 1 run was scored in the first five innings. 


Seems like no matter how I bet totals in MLB this year I am just getting absolutely buried. Losing that F5 Under 4.5 on Saturday between the Braves and Rays should’ve been enough of a sign for me to take a break from doing so.


And if you’re unfamiliar with what occurred, the game was 1-0 in the bottom of the 5th with two outs. Atlanta proceeded to score five runs and cash the over.


And then the loser on the Rangers was a complete dud. I’ve learned my lesson to stop fading Grimace. Apparently the magic is real and he has turned the Mets into a completely different organization. 


On a more serious note - I did mention how Jon Gray’s metrics raised some concerns, but I figured he could overcome them well enough and that we could see Texas in an advantageous spot both situationally and offensively against Derek Peterson. Clearly neither of those things materialized. 


Let’s get some back today, shall we?



Weather Report:


Padres @ Phillies, 6:00 p.m. ET

  • The wind is heading out to left-center field upwards of 11 MPH


Diamondbacks @ Nationals, 6:45 p.m. ET 

  • The wind is blowing out to left field around 10 MPH


Orioles @ Yankees, 7:05 p.m. ET 

  • The wind is blowing in from right field around 10-12 MPH


Tigers @ Braves, 7:20 p.m. ET 

  • The wind is coming in from center field as high as 12.5 MPH


Rays @ Twins, 7:40 p.m. ET 

  • The wind is blowing out as high as 18 MPH to left field


Giants @ Cubs, 8:05 p.m. ET 

  • The Wrigley wind is heading out to left-center field at speeds of 16 MPH


Astros @ White Sox, 8:10 p.m. ET 

  • The wind is coming in from right-center field from speeds of 14-17 MPH



On the Move:

Odds Via 3:30 p.m. ET


Reds @ Pirates 

Circa Opened: CIN (-133) | PIT (+122) | Total: 8.5

Circa Currently: CIN (-124) | PIT (+114) | Total: 8


Padres @ Phillies

Circa Opened: PHI (-150) | SD (+137) | Total: 8 

Circa Currently: PHI (-132) | SD (+121) | Total: 8.5 


Mariners @ Guardians 

Circa Opened: CLE (-110) | SEA (+100) 

Circa Currently: CLE (-131) | SEA (+120)


Red Sox @ Blue Jays 

Circa Opened: BOS (-110) | TOR (+100) | Total: 8 

Circa Currently: BOS (-127) | TOR (+116) | Total: 7.5 



Pitching Projections:


On the Rise:


Michael King @ Phillies 


King:

  • 3.58 ERA, 3.73 xERA, 4.16 FIP, 3.58 xFIP

  • 31% Hard Hit, 3.68 SIERA, 6.8% Barrel 


Kings has allowed four earned runs in his last four starts and has been effective at limiting powerful contact this season. However, facing a top offense in baseball could alter that, though I think he will maintain his performance well enough to keep his team competitive.



Pablo Lopez vs Rays


Lopez:

  • 5.33 ERA, 3.28 xERA, 4.13 FIP, 3.36 xFIP

  • 1.21 WHIP, 37% Hard Hit, 3.28 SIERA, .289 xwOBA, .159 xISO


The right-hander has not found steady rhythm quite yet, but the signs point toward it happening sooner rather than later. The Rays’ offense has remained mediocre, ranking dead last in ISO (.120) and 24th in wRC+ (93) against righties. 


Due for Decline:


Casey Mize @ Braves:


Mize:

  • 4.43 ERA, 4.29 xERA, 3.95 FIP, 4.24 xFIP

  • 8.4% K-BB%, 1.46 WHIP, 4.50 SIERA, .327 xwOBA


Mize’s xFIP has fallen below 5.00 in just one of his last five starts and he’s given up 15 ER in that span. The Braves’ bats have come back alive as they’ve increased their ISO to 3rd (.194) against right-handed pitching in the month of June. Mize may get some relief from the wind blowing in, but it probably won’t be enough to fully limit Atlanta. 



Michael Lorenzen vs Mets 


Lorenzen:

  • 2.86 ERA, 4.65 xERA, 4.71 FIP, 4.62 xFIP

  • 3.9 BB/9, 4.91 SIERA, .339 xwOBA


The Mets, thanks to Grimace, have been the hottest team in baseball. And against righties, they’ve been producing consistent offense, ranking 5th in wRC+ (116) and 7th in ISO (.169) since the middle of May. Lorenzen’s numbers display big signs of regression and this could easily be a spot for it to come to fruition. 



Alec Marsh @ A’s 


Marsh:

  • 3.63 ERA, 4.47 xERA, 3.82 FIP, 3.97 xFIP

  • .333 xwOBA, .195 xISO, 9.5% Barrel


Marsh had an out-of-body experience in his last starts versus the Yankees. The 26-year-old had a no-hitter going into the 7th inning. His end result read: 7.0 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER. A popular angle is to fade pitchers after they throw a no-hitter, or have a performance close to it. Aside from that approach, I believe he’s due to get beat up regardless. Admittedly, facing Oakland might set him up for a no-hit bid once again, but keep this guy on your radar as a strong candidate for regression.



Triston McKenzie (CLE) vs Bryce Miller (SEA):

Both of these pitchers fall under this category and are facing one another


McKenzie:

  • 4.10 ERA, 4.81 xERA, 5.64 FIP, 4.96 xFIP

  • 11.5% Barrel rate, 14.6% HR/FB, 4.81 SIERA, 1.41 WHIP


McKenzie keeps popping up in this section because his numbers are atrocious. I didn’t even list that he’s walking over five batters per nine innings, or that he has an xwOBA of .344 and an xISO of .215. Somehow he managed to give up only four hits and two earned runs in his previous outing at Cincinnati. I don’t think he’ll be able to pull that off again. 


Miller:

  • 3.48 ERA, 4.03 xERA, .318 xwOBA, .210 xISO

  • 12.4% HR/FB, 12% Barrel


Miller numbers are quite fascinating. His BABIP is incredibly low at .217, but taking a look at his other stats you would never believe that to be the case. Essentially, he’s been very lucky. The fortunes will likely run out in general, but especially on the road where he boasts a 5.94 ERA, .329 wOBA and a 6.30 FIP. That’s in comparison to a 1.82 ERA, .214 wOBA and a 2.40 FIP at home. The right-hander’s splits are impossible to ignore. 



Burke’s Bets 


Rays @ Twins


Minnesota has enjoyed a very favorable schedule, playing their last seven games against the likes of the Rockies and A's. The Twins were victorious in six of those spots.


Tonight, they face a below-average offense in the Rays and have Lopez, a pitcher who is expected to emerge, as mentioned earlier:


Lopez:

  • 5.33 ERA, 3.28 xERA, 4.13 FIP, 3.36 xFIP

  • 1.21 WHIP, 37% Hard Hit, 3.28 SIERA, .289 xwOBA, .159 xISO


The right-hander has not found steady rhythm quite yet, but the signs point toward it happening sooner rather than later. The Rays’ offense has remained mediocre, ranking dead last in ISO (.120) and 24th in wRC+ (93) against righties. 


Opposing the home team is right-hander Aaron Civale.


Civale's numbers indicate possible improvement as well, but not quite as significantly as Lopez.


Civale's stats feature a 5.20 ERA, a 4.03 xERA and an xFIP of 3.84.


This issues are that his ground ball rate is low (32%), his home-run-to-fly-ball rate is high (16%) and the Twins are 5th in ISO (.169) and 9th in wRC+ (105) versus RHP this season.


And over the past month their offense has increased those numbers to an ISO of .175 and a wRC+ of 118.

Don't forget that the wind is blowing out to left field as high as 18 MPH.


As long as Lopez limits his potential home run damage, then the offense should be able to take care of the rest. However, due to the volatility via Lopez this season, along with the weather conditions, I'm going to play it a bit safer and elect to ultize the flat run line (available at BetRivers) as opposed to the traditional -1.5.


Play: Twins -1 (-120); Risk 1.80 units to win 1.50



Michael Lorenzen Strikeouts - 4.5

As discussed above, I believe Lorenzen could be in for a rough outing:


Lorenzen:

  • 2.86 ERA, 4.65 xERA, 4.71 FIP, 4.62 xFIP

  • 3.9 BB/9, 4.91 SIERA, .339 xwOBA


The Mets, thanks to Grimace, have been the hottest team in baseball. And against righties, they’ve been producing consistent offense, ranking 5th in wRC+ (116) and 7th in ISO (.169) since the middle of May. Lorenzen’s numbers display big signs of regression and this could easily be a spot for it to come to fruition. 


Evidently, he's struggled to locate the zone as he's walking almost four batters per nine innings. That, along with the recognition of his expected stats signal this to be a spot for a fade.


Lorenzen has failed to eclipse 4.5 strikeouts in 7/11 starts and I believe he will fall short again.


New York has limited their K-rate to just 21% on the season, which puts them 9th.


Since June 1st, that number has decreased to 19%.


The Mets have been seeing the ball well as of late - I imagine that will persist against Lorenzen.


Play: Michael Lorenzen Under 4.5 K's (-105); Risk 1.05 units to win 1.00

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