Happy Friday, everybody! We've got plenty of baseball to look forward to tonight, along with the entire weekend, so let's get you prepared for all the mayhem on the diamond.
Thursday Recap:
With five plays dished out, we ended with a result of 3-2 (+.86):
Twins -1.5 (-114) vs A's; Risk 1.14 units to win 1.00 Win
D'Backs -1.5 (+116) vs Angels; Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.16 Win
Luis Severino Under 5.5 K's (-128); Risk 1.00 unit to win .78 Win
Alec Marsh Under 4.5 K's (-118); Risk 1 unit to win .85 Loss
Cubs ML (-108) @ Ray; Risk 1.08 units to win 1.00 Loss
The Cubs game was a tough one to swallow, as they often are. While betting on the First Five Moneyline seems like the safer option due to the Cubs' unreliable bullpen, the odds reflect this strategy, with the F5 ML priced higher. I figured I could save a little money and trust their relief staff for at least one more game in that series.
But, nope. Despite facing one of the weakest offenses, the Cubs' bullpen faltered yet again.
Justin Steele's exceptional six scoreless innings deserved a better outcome, only to be undone by Mark Leiter Jr.'s seventh-inning struggles, which resulted in surrendering three earned runs and squandering the 2-0 lead.
Just to reiterate what I ranted about on Twitter/X, this is not a playoff team. They are baaaaaaaaad. Don’t let them fool you.
Currently, their odds to miss the playoffs have moved to -185 at BetMGM. Don't fall victim to the temptation of the plus money on them making the postseason.
Alright alright, enough discourse on the lovable losers. Let’s get into today’s affairs…
Weather Report:
Cardinals @ Cubs, 2:20 p.m. ET
Okay, one more note on the Cubbies. At the Friendly Confines it appears that the wind will be blowing in from center field around 10 MPH.
Yankees @ Red Sox, 6:30 p.m. ET
At Fenway Park, the wind will be shooting out towards left-center field at speeds of over 11 MPH.
Padres @ Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET
At the start of the game it appears that the wind will be coming in from left-center field at speeds of 12 MPH. However, as the game progresses, it is expected to shift and blow in from right-center field at slightly under 10 MPH.
On the Move:
Odds Via 1:15 p.m. ET
Phillies @ Orioles
SuperBook Opened: BAL (-120) | PHI (+110) | Total: 8
SuperBook Currently: BAL (-129) | PHI (+119) | Total: 7
Guardians @ Blue Jays
SuperBook Opened: TOR (-125) / CLE (+115)
SuperBook Currently: TOR (-135) | CLE (+125)
Tigers @ Astros
SuperBook Opened: DET (-107) | HOU (-103) | Total: 7.5
SuperBook Currently: DET (+110) | HOU (-120) | Total: 7
White Sox @ Diamondbacks
SuperBook Opened: ARI (-160) | CWS (+145)
SuperBook Currently: ARI (-190) | CWS (+170)
Rangers @ Mariners
SuperBook Opened: SEA (-150) | TEX (+135)
SuperBook Currently: SEA (-135) | TEX (+125)
Angels @ Giants
Circa Opened: SF (-135) | LAA (+124)
Circa Currently: SF (-146) | LAA (+133)
Pitching Projections:
On the Rise:
Hunter Brown vs Tigers
Brown:
5.58 ERA, 4.01 xERA, 4.86 FIP, 3.72 xFIP
3.86 SIERA, 5.2% Barrel, 52.6% GB
Brown has pitched 6.0 innings in each of his last four starts. In that span he’s allowed 6 ER, 13 hits and racked up 26 strikeouts and 8 walks. Detroit ranks 21st in wRC+ (94) versus RHP. Over the last two weeks that number has dipped to a wRC+ of 69. Brown could be set up for a quality evening on the mound.
Gavin Stone vs Royals
Stone:
2.93 ERA, 3.95 xERA, 3.47 FIP, 3.95 xFIP
.289 BABIP, 80.5% LOB, 7.2% HR/FB, 5.8% Barrel, .131 xISO
The right-hander is coming off a strong performance in the Bronx, where he allowed just two earned runs on eight hits in 5.2 innings pitched. Prior to that outing, he delivered shutout performances against the Rockies and Mets in his two previous starts. KC’s offense posts a 102 wRC+ against righties this season, deeming them slightly above average. That doesn’t mean they don’t have the capability of lighting a pitcher up on any given night. I’m just not sure this will be one of those evenings.
Due for Decline:
Logan Allen @ Blue Jays
Allen:
5.57 ERA, 5.17 xERA, 5.50 FIP, 4.36 xFIP
.356 xwOBA, .211 xISO, 4.37 SIERA, 18.2% HR/FB, .321 BABIP
The left-hander’s numbers scream “fade me!” And that’s exactly what the market is doing as Toronto has been pushed from -125 up to -135. Although, there’s a good chance he could fool us once more, given that the Blue Jays rank 29th in wRC+ (60) against LHP this past month. Perhaps Allen will pitch poorly enough to make those numbers irrelevant, though.
Chris Flexen @ Diamondbacks
Flexen:
5.06 ERA, 4.41 xERA, 4.57 FIP, 4.76 xFIP
.332 xwOBA, .192 xISO, 4.70 SIERA
Somehow Flexen has managed to allow just 5 ER in his last three starts. That could all change against an Arizona lineup that has vastly improved their numbers against right-handed pitching. Over the course of the past 30 days, the D’Backs have climbed to 10th in wRC+ (109) and 12th in ISO (.153).
Tyler Anderson @ Giants
Anderson:
2.63 ERA, 4.66 xERA, 4.72 FIP, 5.02 xFIP
.340 xwOBA, .205 xISO, 5.12 SIERA, 10% Barrel
The top regression candidate belongs to southpaw Tyler Anderson. His performance has been remarkable, considering he's stayed afloat despite his concerning underlying metrics.
Over his last five starts, he's only given up eight runs. However, his strikeout rate is below six batters per nine innings, and he's walking nearly four. With a BABIP of .218, it seems unsustainable. Facing San Francisco, who ranks 7th in wRC+ (117) and 11th in ISO (.156) against left-handed pitchers, Anderson may be in for a challenge. Moreover, those numbers have increased to 160 and .214, respectively, in the last two weeks.
Burke’s Bets
Braves vs Rays
After dropping their previous five games, Atlanta finally stepped back into the win column with a 6-3 victory over the Orioles Thursday night.
With Chris Sale taking the bump and the underwhelming Tampa Bay bats coming to town - tonight should offer another opportunity for a win.
Over the past month, the Rays have posted an 85 with their wRC+ against LHP, along with an OPS of just .635.
Sale has been performing at a Cy Young level, boasting an impressive record of 8-2 with a 3.01 ERA (and we’re hoping he becomes one as we’re sweating out our 20/1 ticket).
His xERA is even better at 2.70, plus, his xFIP resides at 2.43.
The left-hander is averaging 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings pitched, with an impressive ratio of just 1.33 walks. Additionally, his barrel rate stands at a low 5.3%.
Hitters are struggling immensely against Sale and I imagine Tampa’s lineup will do the same.
Speaking of struggling hitters, there’s no denying that Atlanta’s lineup has fallen victim to those hardships.
Since Ronald Acuna Jr. tore his ACL on May 26th, the Braves have ranked 27th in wRC+ (70) and 25th in OPS (.604) versus RHP.
Zack Littell will be the right-hander they face tonight.
Littell has been solid with a 3.82 xERA and a 3.71 xFIP. However, his BABIP is .339, his ground ball rate is only 34.2% and his barrel rate is 8.2%.
Sale certainly holds the advantage on the mound, and despite their recent woes, I have confidence in this Atlanta lineup to generate enough damage to cover the runline.
Play: Braves -1.5 (+104); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.04
Hunter Brown Outs Recorded - 16.5 Over (-125) / Under (-105)
As I already discussed - Brown could be due for a strong outing.
He’s gone 6.0 innings in each of his last four starts and has allowed only 6 ER on 13 hits in that span.
His opponent, Detroit, ranks 21st in wRC+ (94) versus RHP. Over the last two weeks that number has dipped to a wRC+ of 69.
Even though his 5.58 ERA may be scary, his xERA is 4.01, his xFIP is 3.72, he is producing grounders at a very high rate (52.6%) and limits his opponent's barrel rate to just 5.2%.
Let’s hope for another long, successful outing from the 25-year-old.
Play: Brown Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-125); Risk 1.00 unit to win .80
Sean Manaea Strikeouts - 4.5 Over (+110) / Under (-140)
The left-hander has allowed 11 earned runs in his last two starts. Throughout the year, he's maintained a 4.30 ERA, a 4.44 xERA, a 3.79 FIP and an xFIP of 4.29.
Additionally, he has generated a high fly ball rate of 45%, walks over 3.7 batters per nine innings and possesses an xwOBA of .333.
He’s averaging five strikeouts per start and has eclipsed this prop mark of 4.5 in half of his outings.
He'll be up against the league's top team in terms of fewest strikeouts per game, with the Padres averaging just 6.8 K's per contest.
Against left-handers specifically, they feature the second-lowest K rate at 17.5%.
Manaea might face challenges against this San Diego lineup, potentially limiting his ability to pitch deep into the game and accumulate strikeouts.
And even if he does go deep, I’m expecting the Padres to put the ball in play consistently.
Play: Sean Manaea Under 4.5 K’s (-140); Risk 1.00 unit to win .71
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