Tuesday Recap
Cal Quantrill strikes again. The man has turned into a Cy Young candidate each time I’ve faded him.
The right-hander went 6.0 IP, allowed 3 hits and 0 ER. He recorded 18 outs - we needed under 17.5. There was a slight chance he was going to get there due to the pitch count, but with a runner on and no outs in the 6th, the Twins hit into a double play, which kept him in the game.
However, we did strike fortune with our other bet. The Tampa Bay Rays walked it off in dramatic fashion against the Cubs, winning 5-2.
Jameson Taillon held his own (6.0 IP, 4 hits, 5 K’s, 0 ER), but - and stop me if you’ve heard this one before - the bullpen let him down. That’s the theme of Chicago baseball right now on both sides of the city.
Mark Leiter Jr. surrendered a run in the 8th inning and then “Heart Attack” Hector Neris allowed the game-tying run off a bloop single and subsequently a three-run homer for the win.
Sucks to see the Cubbies blow another game, but we did have a play on the Rays so we’ll gladly take that dub.
Today’s schedule features four afternoon slots and 11 games in the evening.
Let’s preview the action…
Weather Report:
Nationals @ Tigers, 6:40 p.m. ET
Wind will be blowing in from center field upwards of 12 MPH
Marlins @ Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET
Wind will be blowing out to left-center field around 11 MPH
Pirates @ Cardinals, 7:45 p.m. ET
Wind coming across the diamond from 1st to 3rd base around 10 MPH
On the Move:
White Sox @ Mariners
SuperBook Opener: SEA (-230) | CWS (+200)
SuperBook Currently: SEA (-240) | CWS (+210)
Rockies @ Twins
Circa Opener: MIN (-215) | COL (+195)
Circa Currently: MIN (-240) | COL (+216)
Astros @ Giants
Circa Opener: SF (-105) | HOU (-105) | Total: 7.5
Circa Currently: SF (-115) | HOU (+105) | Total: 7
Athletics @ Padres
SuperBook Opener: SD (-180) | OAK (+165) | Total: 7.5
SuperBook Currently: SD (-190) | OAK (+170) | Total: 8
Nationals @ Tigers
Circa Opener: DET (-131) | WSH (+120) | Total: 8
Circa Currently: DET (-122) | WSH (+112) | Total: 7.5
Pitching Projections:
On the Rise:
Pablo Lopez vs Rockies
Lopez:
5.45 ERA, 3.18 xERA, 4.14 FIP, 3.42 xFIP
10.01 K/9, 2.15 BB/9, 1.23 WHIP, 3.29 SIERA
.286 xwOBA and a .158 xISO
The veteran right-hander's inconsistencies deviate from his usual standards. Lopez has surrendered five or more earned runs in four starts this season, including his last outing against the Yankees in New York, where he allowed 7 ER in 4.0 IP. Facing Colorado presents an opportunity for him to regain his rhythm, as they currently rank last in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers (78).
Aaron Civale vs Cubs
Civale:
5.51 ERA, 4.00 xERA, 4.62 FIP, 3.83 xFIP
9.13 K/9, 2.55 BB/9, 3.79 SIERA, .156 xISO
While I'm not banking on Civale completely reversing his season's trajectory, the metrics suggest improved performances lie ahead. Facing a mediocre Cubs' offense tonight will provide that opportunity to occur sooner rather than later.
Reese Olson vs Nationals
Olson:
3.43 ERA, 3.43 xERA, 3.07 FIP, 3.70 xFIP
.288 BABIP, 53% GB, 5.3% HR/FB 3.84 SIERA, 5.2% Barrel
.296 xwOBA, .109 xISO
Olson has surrendered 13 ER throughout his last two starts, which seems crazy considering what his stats suggest. However, facing a Washington lineup with a wRC+ of 93 and an ISO of .131 against right-handed pitching should provide him with an opportunity to bounce back effectively.
Due for Decline:
Bailey Falter @ Cardinals
Falter:
3.69 ERA, 5.00 xERA, 4.74 FIP, 4.69 xFIP
5.80 K/9, 4.78 SIERA, .220 xISO, .351 xwOBA, 10.1% Barrel
It's evident there's a discrepancy when a pitcher boasts an xERA of 5.00, an xFIP of 4.69, and a BABIP of .213. These numbers signal impending trouble for the southpaw. Coupled with a 42.3% Hard Hit percentage, ranking him 62nd out of 74 qualified pitchers, and other worrisome metrics, an explosion on the mound could be imminent.
Burke’s Bets:
Pirates @ Cardinals
We might as well continue the conversation of Falter, well, faltering (I’ll see myself out).
Red flags are abundant for him and his upcoming opponent, St. Louis, has shown improvement against LHP in the last month, boasting a wRC+ of 102 and an ISO of .141.
Moreover, they have the advantage of relying on right-hander Sonny Gray, whose season has surpassed expectations with a 3.21 ERA and a 2.65 xFIP. Gray is striking out nearly 12 batters per nine innings pitched while walking fewer than three in that span. Additionally, his ground ball percentage stands at 45%, and his xwOBA (.286) and xISO (.150) have been reassuring.
Pittsburgh ranks 29th in both wRC+ (82) and ISO (.118) versus righties.
Despite my fondness of the pitching discrepancy that favors the home team, I’m going to lay the flat run line of -1 as opposed to the standard -1.5. While the Cardinals' offense has shown slight improvement, there are lingering concerns. BetRivers offers the -1 line at -121, and that's the bet I'll be making for this game.
Play: Cardinals -1 (-121); Risk 1.21 units to win 1.00
Nationals @ Tigers
Before checking the weather report, this pitching matchup already sparked interest in betting the under. After noticing that winds would be blowing in from the outfield at speeds upwards of 12 MPH, that conviction was further solidified.
As previously mentioned, Olson appears poised for a quality outing. His low xERA (3.43), xFIP (3.70), and xISO (.109) indicate that positive regression may be on the horizon for him.
His barrel rate is limited (5.2%), along with his home run damage (0.41 HR/9) and instead forces plenty of grounders (53%).
Washington has continued to struggle against righties, including the past two weeks where they’ve featured a wRC+ of 83 and an ISO of .100.
On the other side, the Nationals will be starting righty Jake Irvin.
Irvin displays quality numbers across the board as well.
With a 3.12 ERA, a 3.84 xERA and an xFIP of 3.56, it’s hard to ignore the 27-year-old’s potential.
Furthermore, he’s walking only 1.68 batters per nine innings, limiting the long ball to 0.72 per 9 IP and has a GB rate of 43.5%.
Detroit’s offense has struggled similarly to Washington's. The Tigers currently rank 20th in wRC+ (95) against right-handed pitchers. However, over the past two weeks, that number has plummeted to 72.
Two quality pitchers, a pair of poor offenses and winds blowing in all lead me to betting the first five innings under 4.5.
Play: Nationals @ Tigers F5 Under 4.5 (-130); Risk 1.30 units to win 1.00
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT:
Get yourself ready for the U.S. Open with the latest episode of my podcast!
Pro Golf Bettor Brady Kannon joins the show and shares a preview of the entire course, his betting card and plenty more.
Listen here: https://linktr.ee/BurkesBeat
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