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  • Writer's pictureDanny Burke

MLB Handicapping Handbook for Tuesday, June 25th

Monday Recap:


We had ourselves quite the outcome Monday night after finishing with a 4-0 (+4.30) effort:


Reds ML (-115) vs Pirates; Risk 1.50 units to win 1.30 Win


Red Sox ML (-142) vs Blue Jays; Risk 1.42 units to win 1.00 Win


Brewers -1 (-121) vs Rangers; Risk 1.21 units to win 1.00 Win 


Luis Medina Under 4.5 K’s (-130); Risk 1.30 units to win 1.00 Win 



Let’s try to keep things rolling into Tuesday…



Weather Report


6:35 p.m. ET - Guardians @ Orioles (Camden Yards)

  • Winds are blowing out to left-center field at speeds of 10 MPH 


6:40 p.m. ET - Phillies @ Tigers (Comerica Park)

  • Winds are blowing from right field to left field over 14 MPH 


7:10 p.m. ET - Pirates @ Reds (Great American Ballpark)

  • Winds are blowing from right field to left field at speeds of 9 MPH

  • 36% chance of precipitation 


7:10 p.m. ET - Yankees @ Mets (Citi Field)

  • Winds are blowing out to center field at speeds of 10 MPH


8:10 p.m. ET - Dodgers @ White Sox (Guaranteed Rate Field)

  • Winds are blowing out to left-center field at speeds of 9 MPH 

  • 38% chance of precipitation


8:10 p.m. ET - Marlins @ Royals (Kauffman Stadium)

  • Winds are blowing to left-center field over 10 MPH 

  • 59% chance of precipitation 



On the Move:

Odds Via 11:45 a.m. ET


Guardians @ Orioles 

SuperBook Opened: BAL (-127) | CLE (+117) 

SuperBook Currently: BAL (-144) | CLE (+132)


Phillies @ TIgers 

SuperBook Opened: PHI (-112) | DET (+102) 

SuperBook Currently: PHI (-122) | DET (+112)


Rockies @ Astros 

SuperBook Opened: HOU (-245) | COL (+215) | Total: 8.5 

SuperBook Currently: HOU (-280) | COL (+230) | Total: 8 


Nationals @ Padres

SuperBook Opened: SD (-118) | WSH (+108) 

SuperBook Currently: SD (+104) | WSH (-114)



Pitching Projections


On the Rise 


Hunter Greene vs Pirates


Greene:

  • 3.35 ERA, 3.13 xERA, 3.74 FIP, 4.22 xFIP

  • .282 xwOBA, .126 xISO, 7.8% HR/FB,, 1.12 WHIP, 33.3% Hard Hit, 5.4% Barrel 


Green’s last start was on the road against the Pirates. In that outing he threw 6.1 scoreless innings, allowed just two hits, no walks and tallied 9 strikeouts. Pittsburgh has a 79 wRC+ and a .134 ISO against RHP over the past month. Another good outing could be in store for the young right-hander. 



MacKenzie Gore @ Padres 


Gore:

  • 3.49 ERA, 3.74 xERA, 2.84 FIP, 3.27 xFIP

  • 21% K-BB%, 35% Hard Hit, 3.31 SIERA, 6.4% Barrel, .120 xISO


Gore recently had a disappointing outing against the Diamondbacks, allowing four earned runs on 10 hits over five innings. Despite this, his xFIP was 2.99 for that game, marking three consecutive starts with xFIPs below 3.00. San Diego's offense has performed slightly above average against left-handed pitchers, suggesting tonight's game could yield a quality start for Gore.



Due for Decline 


David Peterson vs Yankees


Peterson:

  • 3.97 ERA, 5.64 xERA, 4.56 FIP, 4.75 xFIP

  • 4.88 SIERA, 1.41 WHIP, .368 xwOBA


The Mets’ lefty has pitched only 22.2 innings, but early on his metrics are worrisome. He’s allowed two ER in each start, except for one outing where he gave up four. The Yankees have performed averagely against southpaws, but we know what this lineup is capable of on any given night. Peterson boasts a 10.38 ERA in two career games (one start) against New York. 



Burke's Bets


Red Sox Over Blue Jays  (-118)


Toronto extended their losing streak to seven games after squandering a 6-2 lead at Fenway Park on Monday night.


They’ll look to snap out of the funk behind the arm of right-hander Kevin Gausman.


Gausman posts an ERA of 4.24, but an xERA of 5.15. 


He has a high home run to fly ball ratio of 12.5%, along with an 11% barrel rate, xwOBA of .354, and xISO of .214.


The Red Sox bats have been hot against righties over the past month, racking up a 116 wRC+ and a .162 ISO. 


In the field, Boston will also be represented on the mound by a right-handed pitcher. 


Brayan Bello is scheduled to start and he’ll bring his 4.83 ERA and 4.59 FIP to the mound. 


Despite those numbers appearing troublesome, his expected metrics say otherwise. Bello’s xERA is 4.10 and his xFIP is at 3.83. Plus, he has a high ground ball rate over 54%, a low barrel rate of 7% and a solid xISO of .149. 


The Blue Jays are a middling offense against RHP the past month, hitting a 102 wRC+ and a .147 ISO. 


And let’s not forget - a reason I stated yesterday as to why I also liked the home team was because of the discrepancy within each team’s relief staff. Boston’s bullpen features an ERA of 3.47, whereas Toronto sits at 4.60. 


I believe the Red Sox will lengthen the Blue Jays streak once again.


Play: Red Sox ML (-118); Risk 1.18 units to win 1.00 



Nationals @ Padres


As mentioned above, I’m expecting a strong performance from the lefty, Gore, this evening:


MacKenzie Gore @ Padres 


Gore:

  • 3.49 ERA, 3.74 xERA, 2.84 FIP, 3.27 xFIP

  • 21% K-BB%, 35% Hard Hit, 3.31 SIERA, 6.4% Barrel, .120 xISO


Gore recently had a disappointing outing against the Diamondbacks, allowing four earned runs on 10 hits over five innings. Despite this, his xFIP was 2.99 for that game, marking three consecutive starts with xFIPs below 3.00. San Diego's offense has performed slightly above average against left-handed pitchers, suggesting tonight's game could yield a quality start for Gore.


Apart from Gore's projections, when we examine the starter for the home team, it's clear that his expectations should be adjusted differently.


Adam Mazur is set to start for the Padres and he brings in a 7.27 ERA, a 6.56 xFIP and a WHIP of 1.96. Granted, he’s only pitched 17.1 innings this season, but the numbers don’t necessarily bode much confidence. 


Since the beginning of June, Washington has increased their numbers against righties, hitting 106 in wRC+ and a .145 ISO. 


The Nationals lost in dramatic fashion Monday Night after Jurickson Profar hit a game-winning two-run homer in the bottom of the 10th; so they should be eager to get back out and snag a dub against a vulnerable pitcher tonight. 


Play: Nationals ML (-113) @ Padres; Risk 1.13 units to win 1.00


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