We end up with another 1-1 effort from Wednesday night.
We picked up a winner with the Cardinals on the runline, but fell short with the first five under 4.5 in Detroit.
There's plenty of spots that have caught my attention on today's slate and I've got a handful of plays. Let's aim for some winners, both during the day and in the evening.
Weather Report:
Nationals @ Tigers, 1:10 p.m. ET
Wind blowing in from right field upwards of 17 MPH
Yankees @ Royals, 2:10 p.m. ET
Wind blowing out to left-center field upwards of 16 MPH
Pirates @ Cardinals, 2:15 p.m. ET
Wind blowing out to left field upwards of 11 MPH
Marlins @ Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET
Wind blowing out to left-center field upwards of 14 MPH
Phillies @ Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET
Wind blowing out to left-center field upwards of 10 MPH
On the Move:
Odds via 12:15 p.m. ET
Nationals @ Tigers
SuperBook Opened: DET (-125) | WSH (+115) | Total: 8.5
SuperBook Currently: DET (-148) | WSH (+134) | Total: 9.5
A’s @ Twins
Circa Opened: MIN (-222) | OAK (+200)
Circa Currently: MIN (-234) | OAK (+210)
White Sox @ Mariners
Circa Opened: SEA (-168) | CWS (+153)
Circa Currently: SEA (-142) | CWS (+130)
Angels @ Diamondbacks
SuperBook Opened: ARI (-165) | LAA (+150)
SuperBook Currently: ARI (-190) | LAA (+170)
Pitching Projections
On the Rise
Joe Ryan vs A’s
Ryan:
3.30 ERA, 3.08 xERA, 3.50 FIP, 3.22 xFIP
3.12 SIERA, 1.48 BB/9, .261 BABIP
The 28-year-old has been great most of the year, with just a couple bumps along the way. This is more of an acknowledgement that he should be primed for an excellent start tonight, rather than a notion of him being undervalued. Oakland’s bats have resorted to their woefulness of last season and Ryan should be able to take advantage.
Brandon Pfaadt vs Angels
Pfaadt:
4.60 ERA, 3.06 xERA, 3.52 FIP, 3.62 xFIP
1.72 BB/9, .288 BABIP, 3.55 SIERA
Pfaadt’s ERA and the 13 runs he’s surrendered over his last three starts may scare some folks off, but they should reconsider. All signs point toward better days ahead and beginning that journey against a team like the Los Angeles Angeles is a perfect way to start.
Due for Decline
Taj Bradley vs Cubs
Bradley:
5.17 ERA, 5.42 xERA, 5.03 FIP, 3.47 xFIP
.363 xwOBA, .278 xISO, 31% GB, 20.5% HR/FB
Bradley’s xFIP of 3.47 is fascinating to see when you consider his other metrics. He is 1-4 and has only started in six games, but the early signs are not very promising. We’ll see if an average Cubbies offense can inflict damage on him.
Burke’s Bets
Alec Marsh Total Strikeouts - 4.5 Over (-113) / Under (-118)
Odds Courtesy of BetRivers
This could result in a disastrous outing for Marsh. Not only are his numbers raising concerns (4.05 ERA, 4.72 xERA, .342 xwOBA, .203 xISO), but going against the most dominant offense in baseball doesn’t inspire any confidence either.
In 11 starts, he has struck out five or more batters in seven games, averaging 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. However, New York boasts the 8th-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers at 20.4%.
When you consider that, along with the Yankees likelihood to produce runs, especially in a game where the wind is blowing out 16 MPH to left-center field, then taking the under on Marsh’s K’s appears to be a viable strategy.
Hopefully New York’s hitters see the ball well so we don’t have to sweat this one out.
Play: Alec Marsh Under 4.5 K’s (-118); Risk 1.00 unit to win .85
Cubs @ Rays
As previously noted, Tampa Bay pitcher Taj Bradley could be due for a rough outing.
Even though it’s against a struggling Cubs lineup, I believe there’s a strong chance it comes to fruition.
Tonight's meeting marks the rubber match of the three-game series. Chicago suffered a heartbreaking loss in the first game, surrendering the lead in the 9th inning and falling 5-2. However, they bounced back on Wednesday night, securing a 4-3 victory.
Justin Steele takes the mound in an attempt to win this series for his club.
Steele has a 3.65 ERA and a 3.98 FIP. However, his xERA is listed at 3.17 and his xFIP at 3.88.
The lefty has done great at limiting hard contact with a barrel rate of just 5.4% and a hard hit percentage of 37.7%.
His stats continue to impress when you see his expected weighted on-base average sitting at .285, and his expected ISO at .128.
The Rays have struggled immensely on the offensive side, particularly against right-handed pitching. However, against southpaws they’ve been slightly better with a wRC+ of 104 and an ISO of .130. Still not the most intimidating numbers, but better than what they’ve produced versus RHP.
Conversely, the Cubs have managed a better stat line against righties as opposed to lefties.
Chicago has a wRC+ of 98 and an ISO of .148 against right-handed pitching.
Similar to their opponent, they don't provide formidable numbers, but they might have an opportunity to alter that against a struggling pitcher in Bradley.
The 23-year-old posts an ERA of 5.17 and an xERA of 5.42. He’s allowing 2.30 home runs per nine innings and has a limited ground ball rate of just 31%.
His barrel rate is sitting at a whopping 17.3% and has a .363 xwOBA and a .278 xISO.
To be fair, he's only pitched 31 innings this season, but certain underlying metrics raise concerns for me, enough to fade him.
Play: Cubs ML (-108); Risk 1.08 units to win 1.00
A’s @ Twins
In the midst of a five-game losing streak, the Athletics will have a quick turnaround from San Diego to Minnesota to face an offense that just tallied 17 runs on Wednesday night.
Given our discussion on Joe Ryan's potential for a strong performance and the evident support from the market on the home team, I'm willing to jump on board.
The cheapest price on the runline is -114, and that’s what I’ll be selecting.
Ryan's xERA of 3.08, xFIP of 3.22, xISO of .174, and xwOBA of .281 provide solid support for backing this right-hander. Additionally, his walk rate is impressively low at 1.48 BB/9.
Oakland’s offense has fallen back to reality after their strong start. Over the last two weeks they now rank dead last in wRC+ vs RHP (62) and ISO (.93).
As for the defensive side of the road team, Luis Medina will be representing them on the mound.
Medina has only started in two games and has pitched a total of 10.1 innings. In that span he has allowed 7 hits, 6 ER, 7 walks and 7 strikeouts.
In the last two weeks Minnesota sits 6th in wRC+ (118) and ISO (.181) against right-handed pitchers.
Let’s hope their offense shows up similarly to last night.
Play: Twins -1.5 (-114); Risk 1.14 units to win 1.00
Angels @ Diamondbacks
Another rubber-match is taking place in the desert.
Brandon Pfaadt and the D’Backs will face Griffin Canning and the Angels.
As mentioned earlier, despite his 4.60 ERA and conceding 13 earned runs in his last three starts, Pfaadt's metrics suggest that positive regression is imminent.
Perhaps the comfort of being back in his home ballpark will help, too. The righty hasn’t pitched at Chase Field since May 15th, which was five starts ago.
His xERA is 3.06 and his xFIP is at 3.62. He’s limiting the walks to just 1.72 per nine innings, has a WHIP of 1.14 and a barrel rate of just 5.6%.
Over the last 14 days Los Angeles has been dreadful against RHP, posting a 71 wRC+ and a .101 ISO.
During that timeframe, Arizona has demonstrated improvement in their hitting against right-handed pitchers, producing a .130 ISO and a 104 wRC+.
Canning’s numbers indicate those improvements may persist. His 4.65 ERA, 4.85 xERA, 5.14 FIP and 4.97 xFIP should back that claim.
Along with the fact he’s walking 3.4 batters per nine innings, has a WHIP of 1.38, a 4.94 SIERA and a xwOBA of .346.
I expect the Snakes to close this series out with a win by two or more runs.
Play: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+116); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.16
Luis Severino 5.5 Strikeouts Over (+102) / Under (-128)
Severino is coming off one of his better performances of the season at Washington. In eight innings of work the right-hander allowed one run on seven hits.
He's averaging 4.8 K's per outing and has stayed under this prop mark of 5.5 in 8/12 starts.
Offensively the Marlins have been poor all year. Their K% is 14th at 22%; that rate has increased to 26% over the past couple of weeks, however.
This is another game where we expect the wind to play a factor as it will be blowing out to left-center field at a speeds of 14 MPH.
I believe we can exploit this high prop mark with a play to the under. Although Severino may succeed in the big picture, the Marlins should provide enough of a challenge to make him work for it.
Play: Severino Under 5.5 K's (-128); Risk 1.00 to win .78
I may add another play in the later matchup between the Dodgers and Rangers, but for now I’m waiting to see where some numbers move. I’ll update accordingly if anything else is included.
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