MLB Handicapping Handbook - Bets, Projections & More

Thursday Recap:

We were able to tack on another winner with the Orioles, as they defeated the Rangers by a score of 11-2.

Orioles -1.5 (+104); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.04 Win

So far this week we've gone 8-2 (+6.13). Let's try to keep this momentum going.

Weather Report

Rangers @ Orioles, 7:05 p.m. ET (Camden Yards)

• Winds are blowing across left field at speeds over 10 MPH 

Astros @ Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET (Citi Field)

• Winds are blowing out to left-center field at speeds over 11 MPH

Rockies @ White Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET (Guaranteed Rate Field)

• Winds are blowing in from center field at speeds over 10 MPH 

• 37% chance of precipitation

Guardians @ Royals, 8:10 p.m. ET (Kauffman Stadium)

• Winds are blowing out to left-center field over 10 MPH 

• 42% chance of precipitation

On the Move

Odds Via 11:20 A.M. ET

Marlins @ Phillies

SuperBook Opened: PHI (-280) | MIA (+230)

SuperBook Currently: PHI (-220) | MIA (+195)

Dodgers @ Giants

SuperBook Opened: LAD (-115) | SFG (+105)

SuperBook Currently: LAD (+102) | SFG (-112)

Rangers @ Orioles

Circa Opened: BAL (-129) TEX (+118) | Total: 8

Circa Currently: BAL (-115) | TEX (+105) | Total: 8.5

Nationals @ Rays

SuperBook Opened: TB (-140) | WSH (+130)

SuperBook Currently: TB (-155) | WSH (+140)

Yankees @ Blue Jays

Circa Opened: NYY (-115) | TOR (+105)

Circa Currently: NYY (+102) | TOR (-112)

Astros @ Mets

Circa Opened: HOU (-113) NYM (+103)

Circa Currently: HOU (+101) | NYM (-111)

Rockies @ White Sox

Circa Opened: CWS (-112) | COL (+102)

Circa Currently: CWS (-122) | COL (+112)

A’s @ D’Backs 

SuperBook Opened: ARI (-135) | OAK (+125) | Total: 8.5 

SuperBook Currently: ARI (-154) | OAK (+139) | Total: 9 

Pitching Projections

On the Rise:

Zach Eflin vs Nationals 

Eflin:

• 4.20 ERA, 3.42 xERA, 3.79 FIP, 3.67 xFIP

• .294 xwOBA, .166 xISO 

Eflin has surrendered seven earned runs throughout his past two starts, however, what’s important to recognize is that they both occurred on the road. The right-hander has a 5.01 road ERA in comparison to a 2.90 home ERA. His underlying metrics suggest better performances lie ahead and Washington has been below-average against RHP the past month with a 95 wRC+, a .139 ISO and a .691 OPS.

Due for Decline:

Colin Rea vs Cubs 

Rea:

• 3.62 ERA, 5.34 xERA, 4.80 FIP, 4.67 xFIP

• 9.5% Barrel, 12% HR/FB, .359 xwOBA, .194 xISO

Rea might get the benefit of the doubt against one of the league's more disappointing offenses, but, overall, his numbers remain concerning. Before his last start, where he gave up five runs in San Diego, he had only allowed six earned runs over five games. Poor outings could become a trend for Rea in the near future. 

Yusei Kikuchi vs Yankees

Kikuchi:

• 4.00 ERA, 3.89 xERA, 3.53 FIP, 3.37 xFIP

• .336 BABIP, 12.2% HR/FB, 9.6% Barrel, 43.4% hard hit

At first glance, you might question why I consider him a candidate for regression based on his surface stats. However, his high batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and tendency to allow hard contact from opponents are concerning factors. In his last two starts, he has pitched six innings, giving up 15 hits, 9 earned runs, and 4 home runs. His upcoming start doesn't promise to be any easier, facing a Yankees offense that boasts a 112 wRC+ and a .175 ISO over the past month.

Randy Vasquez @ Red Sox 

Vasquez:

• 5.10 ERA, 6.81 xERA, 5.47 FIP, 4.58 xFIP

• 10% Barrel, 40% Hard Hit, 1.68 WHIP, 16.4% HR/FB, .397 xwOBA, .210 xISO

The 25-year-old righty is as alarming as it gets. What makes fading him in some capacity even more appealing is the fact that he’s coming off of a five-inning shutout performance against Milwaukee. Vasquez should be getting pummeled and it’s likely to occur against a red-hot Red Sox lineup that’s hitting a 114 wRC+ and a .171 ISO over the past 30 days. 

Martin Perez @ Braves 

Perez:

• 4.71 ERA, 5.70 xERA, 4.69 FIP, 4.43 xFIP

• 47% Hard Hit, 9.6% Barrel, 1.55 WHIP, 13% HR/FB, .341 BABIP

Perez is set to come off the injured list after a groin injury kept him out for a month. The left-hander had allowed only three earned runs throughout his past two starts, granted - he pitched just 7.1 innings. His overall stats, including a .369 xwOBA and .210 xISO, also point to potential issues. In his recent outing, which happened to be against his upcoming opponent, Atlanta, he threw three scoreless innings, but his xFIP resulted in 5.74. The Braves are likely poised for a strong bounce back performance.

JP Sears (LHP) @ Diamondbacks

Sears:

• 5.04 ERA, 4.77 xERA, 4.97 FIP, 5.25 xFIP

• 41% hard hit, 10% barrel, 5.00 SIERA

The left-hander has given up 15 earned runs in his past three starts. His most recent outing against Minnesota was particularly rough, as he lasted just 1.1 innings and surrendered 8 earned runs. Arizona will be chomping at the bit for some offense considering they’ve dropped their last four out of five games and also because they have thrived against southpaws this season with a 112 wRC+, .153 ISO and a .754 OPS. 

Burke’s Bets 

Randy Vasquez Strikeouts - 4.5 

As I mentioned earlier, the Padres’ starter could be destined for a poor outing tonight:

Vasquez:

• 5.10 ERA, 6.81 xERA, 5.47 FIP, 4.58 xFIP

• 10% Barrel, 40% Hard Hit, 1.68 WHIP, 16.4% HR/FB, .397 xwOBA, .210 xISO

The 25-year-old righty is as alarming as it gets for today’s slate. What makes fading him in some capacity even more appealing is the fact that he’s coming off of a five-inning shutout performance against Milwaukee in his last outing. Vasquez should be getting pummeled and it’s likely to occur against a red-hot Red Sox lineup that’s hitting a 114 wRC+ and a .171 ISO over the past 30 days. 

The reason I’m not targeting Boston outright is because I have concerns with Nick Pivetta, and due to San Diego’s bats being hot. 

Rather, I like the approach of taking Vasquez’s under on his strikeouts prop. 

He’s racking up only 5.85 K’s in comparison to 2.3 walks per nine innings. 

He’s averaging 3.1 strikeouts per outing and has stayed under this prop mark in 7/10 starts. 

Not only have the Red Sox been mashing the ball against right-handed pitchers as of late - which could limit his length of innings pitched along with opportunities to tally strikeouts - but they’ve been more disciplined at the plate during the past month with a 21.6% K-rate. 

Boston should thrive on the offensive end and Vasquez should remain under this prop mark.

Play: Randy Vasquez Under 4.5 K’s (-162); Risk 1.00 unit to win .62

Guardians @ Royals 

We’ve got two starting pitchers with massive concerns in their metrics. 

Alec Marsh will represent the home team with his 4.40 ERA, 4.75 xERA, 3.87 FIP and 4.15 xFIP. 

Batters have produced solid contact against the right-hander with a 42% hard hit and 10% barrel rate. 

Furthermore, his xwOBA sits at .341 and his xISO is at .199. 

Cleveland’s offense boasts a 122 wRC+, .183 ISO and a .775 OPS against righties over the past month. 

As for the road team’s starting pitcher - that will be Triston McKenzie. 

McKenzie is a frequent flyer within our regression candidate list. 

His stats speak for himself: 4.66 ERA, 5.24 xERA, 6.16 FIP and 5.24 xFIP 

If those numbers aren't convincing enough, consider his alarming tendencies: he allows over two home runs and walks nearly six batters per nine innings. He also sports a 12.5% barrel rate, a .356 xwOBA, and a .237 xISO.

The Royals have struggled recently against RHP - hitting a 90 wRC+, a .166 ISO and a .688 OPS over the past month - but this matchup presents a perfect opportunity for them to reverse course. 

It's worth noting that the wind will be blowing out to left-center field at speeds of 10 MPH or more. There is a 42% chance of precipitation, but I'm optimistic the game will be played and that runs will be scored.

Play: KC/CLE Over 9.5 Runs (-105); Risk 1.05 units to win 1.00 

Arizona Diamondbacks Total Runs - 4.5 

As discussed, the Snakes have an advantageous pitching matchup this evening:

JP Sears (LHP) @ Diamondbacks

Sears:

• 5.04 ERA, 4.77 xERA, 4.97 FIP, 5.25 xFIP

• 41% hard hit, 10% barrel, 5.00 SIERA

The left-hander has given up 15 earned runs in his last three starts. His most recent outing against Minnesota was particularly rough, as he lasted just 1.1 innings and surrendered 8 earned runs. Arizona will be chomping at the bit for some offense considering they’ve dropped their last four out of five games and also because they have thrived against southpaws this season with a 112 wRC+, .153 ISO and a .754 OPS. 

Sears is indeed vulnerable, and the Diamondbacks are eager for a win, especially against a weak left-handed pitcher.

After Sears, Arizona can anticipate facing an Oakland bullpen that has struggled recently.

Over the past month, their ERA has risen to 3.80, with a FIP of 5.07 and xFIP of 4.91.

Let’s hope the D’Backs inflict some damage tonight.

Play: Diamondbacks Team Total Over 4.5 (-113)