Dodgers @ Twins
Los Angeles should be feeling eager to get back on the diamond after their disappointing series in the Windy City against the Cubs.
The Dodgers fell victim in two out of the three games at the Friendly Confines, and, naturally - the game I went to was the one they were victorious. Not a great start for my record while attending Cubs’ games in 2024.
I digress…
Their opponent for this evening - the Twins - are also seeking some positivity. Minnesota has just one win in their last five efforts.
They will look to righty Bailey Ober, to point them in the appropriate direction this evening.
Although, Ober’s first outing this season was not a pretty one. He survived just 1.1 innings, allowed nine hits and eight runs in Kansas City against the Royals.
Ober is nowhere near as bad as that first outing - that much is clear. However, his underlying metrics did indicate a bit of regression from what we witnessed in 2023.
Last season, he accumulated an ERA of 3.43 in over 144 innings of work, but his FIP was 4.20.
In the grand scheme of things, a 4.20 FIP, with a 3.43 ERA, is not very concerning. What is concerning, though, is how embarrassing his first start was, and afterwards having to overcome arguably the best lineup in baseball in the Dodgers. Tough to imagine what will be going through his head when the slightest ounce of adversity hits tonight.
As for the road team - the Southpaw James Paxton will be getting the nod.
Paxton, in '23 with Boston, went 96 IP, had a 4.50 ERA and a 4.68 FIP.
In his lone start this year, he pitched five innings, allowed no runs and just four hits. Very strong outing in his LA debut. However, his xFIP did come out to 5.32 after that game. Take that into account as much as you will.
Whether or not you do is entirely up to you, of course. But what you should absolutely recognize is how some of these batters in the Twins lineup have fared against Paxton.
Carlos Correa has a .407 average in 31 plate appearances, Byron Buxton has a .300 average in 12 plate appearances and Carlos Santana has five hits in six at bats against him.
This season Minnesota has had 54 plate appearances vs LHP, and they rank 9th in wRC+ against them (123).
Perhaps the Twins can cause some damage against Paxton this evening.
Conversely, the Dodgers are tied-fourth with a 129 wRC+ against righties. Their lineup does not have too much familiarity with Ober, but - let’s be honest - this group is beyond lethal and can inflict harm on just about anyone.
I’m expecting a higher scoring affair in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
Play: LAD/MIN Over 8.5 (-110); Risk 1.10 units to win 1.00
Phillies @ Cardinals
It had been a bit of a slower start for Philadelphia until they finally garnered some momentum after taking two out of three games against the Nationals this past weekend.
Still, it’s an offense that has a .183 average and a 71 wRC+ vs RHP thus far.
Their matchup tonight should provide an opportunity to boast those numbers, though.
Miles Mikolas will be providing that chance. Mikolas, in two starts, has racked up a 6.10 ERA, a 6.50 expected ERA, and a FIP of 4.83. Also, his batting average of ball in play, or BABIP, is currently sitting at .375. That’s very alarming.
Granted, it doesn’t help when your first two starts come against the likes of the Dodgers and Padres.
Regardless, Mikolas is a pitcher who I’ve been looking to fade for quite some time, and I believe we can aim to do that here.
This Phillies lineup is still incredibly formidable, and features a handful of hitters who have plenty of experience against Mikolas.
As for Philadelphia’s pitching - Spencer Turnbull will be taking the bump. Turnbull looked terrific in his ‘24 debut. Against the Reds, he threw five innings, allowed three hits, no runs, no walks and tallied seven strikeouts. It was no fluke either, as his xFIP resulted in being .95 for that game.
Now that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to correlate to this specific setting, but there is certainly more of a positive outlook for him as opposed to Mikolas. And, the Phillies lineup is much deeper.
Plus, St. Louis is dealing with injuries to Catcher Wilson Contreras and OF Lars Nootbaar. Whether or not those guys will be in the lineup remains to be seen, but even if they do return - I still have the utmost confidence in the road squad - especially at the price that’s being dealt.
Play: Phillies Moneyline (-103); Risk 1.03 units to win 1.00
Diamondbacks @ Rockies
The next wager on Monday’s slate features a rematch of Zac Gallen and Kyle Freeland.
The last time around - on March 28th - it didn’t go too smoothly for the lefty.
Freeland, in 2.1 IP, allowed 10 ER on 10 hits. Arizona went on to win that game 16-1.
Subsequently, Freeland faced the Cubs on the road and surrendered nine hits, seven runs, two homers and three walks. Chicago won 12-2.
In his career, Freeland has seen the D’Backs 21 times, and has gone 3-9 with a 6.09 ERA.
Seeing Freeland struggle isn’t all that shocking. Last season, the lefty had a 5.03 ERA and a FIP of 5.30. He’s just not a quality pitcher.
On the contrary, Arizona’s starter is viewed with very high regards.
Zac Gallen, in two starts, has totaled an ERA of 0.82 and a FIP of 3.18. In 14 career starts vs the Rockies, he is 7-1 with a 2.41 ERA. Also, he’s 2-0 in six starts at Coors Field.
In that first meeting against Colorado, Gallen threw five innings, allowed three hits and one earned run. His xFIP in that game was a tad high - 5.78 - but we then saw it level out in his next outing vs the Yankees (3.16).
The betting market has been a fascinating one to monitor for this setting.
It appears as if bettors are timid in backing the Diamondbacks for the full game, considering their bullpen blew two leads in their recent series against the Braves.
At Circa Sportsbook, the first five moneyline opened at -165 and moved to -180, in favor of Arizona. However - for the full game it originated at -175 and then slightly dipped to -171.
Despite the public perception, the Snakes bullpen presents a very respectable ERA of 3.55 with a 3.22 FIP. On the other side, the Rockies relief staff has managed to rack up a 7.28 ERA and a FIP of 5.24.
Colorado’s woes don’t just revolve throughout the pitching staff - their offense has mustered a measly wRC+ of 79 against right-handed pitching.
Arizona is fourth in wRC+ vs LHP (138) in 177 plate appearances.
The D’Backs have lost their last four games and are in dire need of a bounce back effort. There’s no better situation to accomplish that than against Freeland and the Rockies.
Play: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-110); Risk 1.10 units to win 1.00
Cubs @ Padres
Yu Darvish is set to face his former club when San Diego hosts Chicago in a three-game series.
Darvish has looked strong on the bump to this point. The veteran righty has started in three contests, managed a 2.30 ERA, a 2.93 FIP and a home-run-to-fly-ball ratio of just 6.7%.
In four career starts against the Cubbies, he is 2-2 with a 1.71 ERA.
The Padres begun their ‘24 campaign underwhelmingly. They just lost 2/3 games against the Giants and have fallen to 5-7 on the year.
They will oppose Javier Assad, who has just one start under his belt. He went six scoreless innings against the aforementioned Rockies.
In 2023, Assad threw over 109 innings and had a 3.05 ERA. Despite the impressive earned run average, his expected ERA was listed at 4.64 and his xFIP at 4.35.
I can’t imagine his success is sustainable - especially against this San Diego lineup.
What the Northsiders were able to accomplish in their weekend series vs the Dodgers was admirable. But, coming off a game in which they sat around all day during a rain delay, to then having a quick turnaround to the West Coast against a hot pitcher in Darvish seems like an unforgiving situation.
And Catcher Yan Gomes is the only hitter in the Cubs’ lineup that has had frequent success vs Darvish: 11 AB / .455 avg.
You all know I love my Cubbies, but this appears to be a viable spot to fade them.
Play: Padres Moneyline (-132); Risk. 1.00 units to win .76
MLB record: 10-8-1 (+1.68)
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