Monday Recap
Last night's outcome was a neutral 1-1 effort, resulting in no gain or harm (+0.00).
Pirates ML (-118) vs Mets; Risk 1.18 units to win 1.00 Win
Andrew Abbott Under 5.5 K’s (+115); Risk 1.00 units to win 1.15 Loss
With tonight's card, I'm just going straight into my breakdown of plays since I have several. Let's hope for a strong effort on the diamond this evening:
Burke's Bets
Yankees @ Rays
Carlos Rodon’s season has been far from ideal. He has posted a 4.45 ERA, a 4.49 xERA, and a 4.35 xFIP. His xwOBA is .332, and his xISO is .215.
The left-hander also boasts a low ground ball rate of 33.7%, alongside high figures in his home run to fly ball ratio (13%), hard-hit rate (43%) and barrel rate (10.5%).
Rodon has allowed 23 earned runs in his past four starts.
Tonight he’ll face a Tampa Bay offense that has found a rhythm against lefties. The Rays have a 123 wRC+, a .177 ISO and a .769 OPS against LHP the past month.
Starting for the home team will be right-hander Ryan Pepiot.
At various points this season, I've had high hopes for the 26-year-old, as his xERA (4.00) consistently remains lower than his actual ERA (4.40), and his xFIP (3.98) stays below his FIP (4.09).
Plus, he’s surrendered only five ER in his past three starts. Granted, two of those outings featured outcomes of xFIPs over 7.17.
His .315 xwOBA, .188 xISO and 10.4% barrel rate indicate that regression could occur sooner rather than later.
And despite their struggles as of late, the Yankees quality as a top candidate to make that come to fruition.
The Bronx Bombers have a 113 wRC+, a .189 ISO and a .748 OPS versus RHP the past month.
Aside from the starting pitchers, both bullpens could provide run production as well.
Since the beginning of June, New York's relief staff has posted a 4.79 ERA, while Tampa's stands at 4.47.
The total for this game feels a bit low - I would’ve envisioned this opening at 8.5 and potentially trending toward 9, but that wasn’t the case.
There are still 8’s available throughout the market and that’s what I’ll be wagering on in this spot.
Play: NYY/TBR Over 8 (-110); Risk 1.10 units to win 1.00
A’s @ Red Sox
Winners of six of their past seven games, Boston will look to add another victory against one of the weaker teams in Major League Baseball.
That team is the Oakland Athletics.
Representing them on the mound tonight will be right-hander Joey Estes.
Estes has a 4.39 ERA and a 4.75 xFIP. His xwOBA is .320, and his xISO is .204.
What’s remarkable to see is how low his ground ball rate is. Estes’ resides at 21% in that regard; his fly ball rate is at 51.5% and his line drive rate is 27.5%.
The 22-year-old also has a 43% hard hit rate, along with an 8% barrel rate. He’s given up only four earned runs throughout his past three starts, which indicates regression is imminent.
Over the past 30 days, the Red Sox have managed a 112 wRC+, a .177 ISO and a .773 OPS against right-handed pitching.
For the home team, Brayan Bello will be starting.
Bello’s numbers are intriguing to say the least.
His ERA is very concerning at a number of 5.19, however his xERA is 4.20 and his xFIP shows 3.87.
He’s done well at keeping his xISO low (.149) and his ground ball rate high (54%).
The 25-year-old faced the A’s once this season: on April 2nd, he pitched five innings, allowing four runs, recording six strikeouts and issuing one walk. His xFIP for that outing was 2.83.
Oakland has struggled significantly against right-handers all season, particularly over the last month, where they've accumulated a .656 OPS, a .141 ISO, and a 91 wRC+.
This spot sets up nicely for Bello to fall into a groove and gain some confidence. I’ll be backing him along with the home team’s bats.
Play: Red Sox -1.5 (+102); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.02
Marlins @ Astros
Houston enters this series after losing their past two contests on the road against Minnesota.
Conversely, Miami claimed victories in their prior two spots, both coming versus the White Sox.
It’s hard to imagine that the Marlins will tack on another win given today’s matchup.
The road club will be starting left-hander Trevor Rogers.
His ERA sits at 4.91, but his expected ERA is 5.07 and his xFIP is 4.47.
The southpaw is walking over four batters per nine innings pitched, has a 12% home run to fly ball ratio, a 9% barrel and a 45% hard hit rate.
Somehow, Rogers has allowed only 10 earned runs in his past five starts. Facing a Houston offense that has a 114 wRC+, a .153 ISO, and a .760 OPS against left-handed pitchers in the past month, it's reasonable to expect a downfall this evening.
Opposing Rogers’ will be Ronel Blanco.
The right-hander has pitched his way to a 2.53 ERA, a 3.65 xERA and a 4.23 xFIP.
His BABIP is extremely low at .188, along with his hard hit rate, which is at 34%.
Blanco has given up only seven earned runs in his past five starts. Considering the Marlins rank last in wRC+ (67) and OPS (.602) against right-handed pitchers the past month, his success should continue.
Plus, assuming he is starting (there are some books that have the game off the board), I'm sure he will find more motivation than usual with the sentiment around the organization being that he was snubbed from the All-Star Game.
Houston will be locked in all around and find their way back into the winning column after tonight’s affair.
Play: Astros -1.5 (+100); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.00
Roansy Contreras Strikeouts - 3.5 (-140)
Contreras has pitched in 35.2 innings this season. He has started in only two games, which happen to be his past two outings. Both of those games came against Oakland and he didn’t last longer than three innings.
Contreras will be utilized for a few innings at most and then it will be a bullpen game the rest of the way for the Angels. At least that’s what the plan appears to be.
Naturally, with limited innings available you would imagine that makes it tough to tally a handful of strikeouts.
Contreras has gone over 3.5 K’s in only one outing this year. At home against Milwaukee he went three innings and managed four strikeouts.
His numbers do not bode much confidence either: 4.04 ERA, 5.17 xERA, 4.80 FIP, 4.98 xFIP
Also, he’s walking over 4.5 batters per nine innings, has a 10.2% HR/FB, a 10.5% barrel and 44% hard hit rate.
His xwOBA sits at .353 and his xISO is at .203.
This season the Rangers rank 5th in K-rate against right-handed pitchers with a 20% clip.
I believe they’ll manage their way around Contreras’ pitches efficiently and potentially knock him out even earlier than expected.
Play: Roansy Contreras Under 3.5 K’s (-140); Risk 1.00 unit to win .71
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