Last night featured a very tough pill to swallow. See, here I was thinking we evened out on the gambling karma, but man was I wrong. On Monday night we had lost on the D’Backs after they blew a 4-1 lead; then, following that, we were able to redeem ourselves and cash on the Padres moneyline after they climbed out of an 8-0 deficit against the Cubs.
Maybe that was a reach to assume that was an equal cross out, it was a fairly sizable difference.
Regardless, last night we took the Braves on the runline (-1.5). They managed to build a 6-0 lead heading into the 8th inning. That lead was holding strong until Atlanta gave up a three-run homer to Pete Alonso, and then in the 9th they surrendered two more runs to demolish my spirit and ultimately our bet.
Baseball can be a cruel, cruel sport. That’s the nature of the beast, though. It’s a long season and I’m sure we’ll have plenty turn in our favor that we didn’t deserve along the way.
Before we get to the plays - a reminder that I’m now partnered with the sports betting app “Rithmm.”
Rithmm provides personalized predictive tools to help assist your decision making with your wagers. Unlike traditional betting platforms, Rithmm encourages users to actively participate in the analytical process. Everyone is always talking about wanting to make models and becoming more advanced in their handicapping approach, but let’s be honest - most of us don’t have the time to do so. That’s the beauty of Rithmm - it gives you the tools and resources to assist the development of your own models so you can make well-informed betting decisions.
And with the Masters starting tomorrow, and the NBA playoffs right around the corner - there is no better time to sign up than right now!
You can receive a 7-day free trial by downloading the app using this link: https://rithmm.page.link/gains
P.S., in case you missed it - make sure you check out the latest episode of “Burke’s Beat,” where I am joined by Pro Golf Bettor Brady Kannon as we preview the most anticipated tournament on the PGA Tour: The Masters.
Let’s hit the diamond…
Cubs @ Padres
This has been an entertaining series to say the least. I mentioned how on Monday night San Diego climbed their way out of an 8-run hole to win the game 9-8. Then, last night, Chicago supplemented runs via a Yan Gomes solo shot and a Christopher Morel grand slam.
Just how the ole Cubbies drew it up, eh?
I was ecstatic to see those events occur for the road team. Not only because I am a die-hard fan, but because I had strong interest in backing the Padres in tonight's contest and wouldn’t have felt as confident had they been in a position to sweep. Winning 3-4 games in a row against one club is hard enough as is, baseball is a volatile sport and the opposing teams hate the idea of getting swept - it’s a big pride thing. Plus, when it’s against a team as talented as the Northsiders, then the chances of accomplishing that feat is even thinner.
Thus, I was content to view last night’s result and will be expecting the opposite to come to fruition this evening.
The right-hander Dylan Cease is taking the bump for San Diego. Cease always has a little extra motivation prepared for when he faces the Cubbies. Chicago was the team that selected him in the 6th round of the 2014 draft. They eventually dished him off to their cross-town rival Chicago White Sox.
Cease, in five appearances against them, has a 2-2 record with a 3.45 ERA. No player among the Cubs’ lineup has more than one hit on him.
Last year was not one of his smoothest, but that’s what being a member of the White Sox will do to you. Luckily for Cease, he’s in a new setting out in sunny San Diego. So far, through two starts, he’s thrown 10.2 innings, has a 3.38 ERA, a 2.67 xERA and a FIP of 1.92.
Both of his starts came against the Giants. In those contests combined he surrendered six hits, four runs and had 13 strikeouts in comparison to just four walks.
On the other side, the veteran righty Kyle Hendricks gets the nod for the Cubs.
Let me preface this breakdown by saying I love Hendricks and he is a Chicago legend.
With that being said, I have been on the fade Hendricks train for the past couple of seasons. He is unstable and unreliable on the mound - you never know what type of performance you’re going to receive. He could pitch an absolute gem one night and then surrender seven runs the very next. He is susceptible to giving up the long ball, and if he doesn’t have consistent movement on his pitches then you can guarantee a rough outing is in store.
His 2024 campaign has not gone accordingly. In two starts, he’s managed 7.2 innings of work, accumulated a 11.74 ERA, a 9.25 xERA, an 8.32 FIP and an xFIP of 5.10. He’s given up three home runs and has walked four batters in that short span of work.
Against Texas, he allowed five runs on 9 hits and then against the Los Angeles Dodgers, he dished out 5 runs on 8 hits. Two great lineups, yes, but that doesn't change my assessment on Hendricks. The wind was blowing heavily at Wrigley Field in the meeting against LA, and he still managed to get crushed.
Despite all of that, the positives he has going for him in this game is the fact that he has done exceptionally well versus San Diego throughout his career. In 14 appearances against the Padres, he is 8-3 with an ERA of 2.74.
San Diego’s lineups have changed quite frequently in Hendrick’s MLB tenure, but it’s still worth appreciating.
So, yes, I will give Hendricks his credit for what he’s done in the past, but he’s not the same pitcher he once was and he will continue to get worse.
The pitching matchup heavily favors the home team and that will prove to be the difference in deciding which team wins this rubber match.
Play: Padres ML (-135); Risk 1.35 units to win 1.00
Nationals @ Giants
Let’s keep things on the West Coast as San Francisco hosts the team residing in our Nation's Capital.
The Giants are throwing out the hot hand in Jordan Wicks, who has dealt 12 innings of work and has given up just one earned run.
Hicks’ two starts both appeared against the Padres. His stat line displays him with an ERA of 0.75, an xFIP of 2.98 and 11 strikeouts compared to one walk.
Opposing San Fran is the lefty Patrick Corbin. He’s not having quite as exhilarating of a start to his season as Hicks is.
Corbin has thrown over 10 innings, racked up a 6.97 ERA and a 5.37 FIP. He allowed four runs on seven hits at Cincinnati, and four runs on nine hits vs Philly.
The Giants come into this game a bit below average against southpaws. They have a .253 avg, a .323 wOBA and a 103 wRC+.
They should be able to produce against the struggling Patrick Corbin, though.
The way I’m betting the home team is actually going to focus on the first five innings as opposed to the entire game.
See, this San Francisco bullpen has been shaky during these first few weeks with a 6.10 ERA, and I don’t want their mishaps to kill our bet.
It appears the betting market feels similarly. Over at Circa Sportsbook, the F5 ML on the Giants opened at -189 and is now seen at -204. Conversely, the full game price opened at -187 and has only ticked up to -190. So there’s still a bit of support, but not nearly as much as there is with the first half of this affair.
Let’s keep our handicap revolving around the starting pitching and try to cash in a ticket from that angle.
It’s a bit chalky, but I’m willing to lay a little extra instead of sweating out this volatile relief staff.
Play: Giants F5 -0.5 (-135); Risk 1.35 units to win 1.00
MLB record: 12-12-1 (-0.78)
Comments