Happy Father's Day, everyone! Hope you get to enjoy the final round of the U.S. Open, along with some action on the diamond.
Saturday's results were tough to swallow - to say the least.
We received another submission for our worst beat of the year; it belongs to our wager between the Rays and Braves.
I gave out the First Five under at 4.5. The game was 1-0 heading into the Bottom of the 5th. Ryan Pepiot managed to get two outs. Despite that, Atlanta put up five runs, yes five runs, in the inning with two outs. This sport can drive you bonkers sometimes.
The Orioles did come through with a solid price on their runline (+125) over the Phillies - so that was good to see.
Unfortunately in the later game we took a position on Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the Dodgers and the rookie left the game in the 3rd inning with tricep tightness. Manager Dave Roberts said there is a high probability that he'd be put on the 15-day injured list, which stinks to see. LA went on to lost 7-2.
So we end up 1-2 on the day (-.80); let's look to rebound.
Padres @ Mets
Not only is this spot enticing due to San Diego facing a sweep, but because of who is pitching for them.
Dylan Cease will get the nod for the road team. He hold an xERA of 3.41 and an xFIP of 3.28. Also, his BABIP (.258) and hard hit rate (36%) have been kept very much under control by the right-hander.
The Mets possess a 100 wRC+ and a .140 ISO against righties this season. Over the past couple of weeks those numbers have dipped to a 90 wRC+ and a .126 ISO.
New York will be starting fellow right-hander Tylor Megill.
Megill's ERA of 3.51 appears strong, but there are concerns with his xERA, which is listed at 4.32 and his xwOBA at .329.
Furthermore, he's walking 3.86 batters per nine innings, has a .323 BABIP and a 65.5% left on-base percentage.
The Padres have a wRC+ of 121 and an ISO of .148 versus RHP this season. Over the last 14 days those stats have increased to a 126 wRC+ and a .199 ISO.
I believe San Diego avoids the sweep and captures the win behind the reliable arm of Cease.
Play: Padres ML (-130); Risk 1.30 units to win 1.00
Marcus Stroman Outs Recorded - 17.5 Over (+100) / Under (-130)
Prior to his last start, I considered Stroman as a top-regression candidate.
That's what his underlying metrics were and are displaying.
Well, Stroman told those metrics to kick rocks and he went out and pitched 5.2 scoreless innings against the Kansas City Royals.
His xFIP for that specific game was 5.62. Two starts ago, it measured 8.18, and three starts ago, it was 5.34.
He should be getting pummeled.
He boasts a 2.82 ERA, but his xERA is 4.47, his xFIP is 4.57, his SIERA is 4.72 and then his xwOBA shows .334.
He's walking 3.84 batters per nine innings and holds a 12.5% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio.
The Red Sox ranks 4th in ISO (.175) and 8th in wRC+ (104) versus right-handed pitching this year.
Over the past few weeks they've increased those numbers, though. Their ISO is .172 and their wRC+ leaped to 120.
Let's hope the bats stay alive and they can get Stroman out of this contest early.
Play: Marcus Stroman Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-130); Risk 1.30 units to win 1.00
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