Twins @ Royals
Seth Lugo will be making his Royals debut this afternoon. Lugo, the 34-year-old righty, is coming off a strong 2023 performance with the Padres. He went 8-7, posted a 3.57 ERA and a FIP of 3.83.
In his career, he’s gone up against the Twins four times (two starts) and owns a 2.57 ERA.
For Minnesota, Joe Ryan looks to continue his success against Kansas City. Ryan holds a 5-0 record, along with a 1.50 ERA against them.
If you take a gander at his stats from last season at face value - then you might be slightly timid investing in Ryan. He accumulated an ERA of 4.51. However, his xERA finished at 3.53 and his xFIP was 3.76. Plus, his BABIP was over .300 (.305). Essentially this means that Ryan was somewhat unlucky with his balls that were batted in play.
If we factor that in along with his past success versus the Royals, then I believe we should expect a solid performance out of the 27-year-old.
Much like the first meeting between these teams, I believe runs will come at a premium.
Play: MIN/KC First Five Under 4.5 (-125); Risk 1.25 Units to win 1.00
Giants @ Padres
Other pitchers making their debut in different settings would include Dylan Cease with the Padres and Jordan Hicks with the Giants.
Cease spent his first five years in the show as a member of the Chicago White Sox. The right-hander had some incredible seasons throughout that span, however, in ‘23 his numbers dipped. Cease threw 177 innings, posted a 4.58 ERA, walked over 4 batters per nine innings and had a BABIP of .330. His FIP (3.72), among other metrics, indicate that those numbers don't tell the whole story, though.
It’s not hard to post below-average stats as a member of the Chicago White Sox. In fact, sometimes it appears as if it’s encouraged throughout the organization (sorry, Sox fans).
The change of scenery will do wonders for Cease and he will be able to get back to efficient form. Side note, in his last two starts against San Francisco he went 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and struck out 12 batters in a span of 10 innings.
Moving over to Hicks, this will be a different setup for him as well. He has been a reliever for a majority of his career; he’s only started in 8 games and they all came in 2022.
Throughout this past spring training, Hicks struck out 28 batters in over 17 innings of play. His ERA finished at 2.65. Clearly he did enough to prove his worth.
There is no denying what Hicks is capable of. Though, I do have my reservations about his longevity, especially in the first outing of the year. He’s going against a very intimidating lineup and may be feeling a lot of pressure in this first start with a sense of having much to prove.
I’m against the betting market on this one. We saw San Diego open as high as a -130 favorite, but are now labeled around the -124 mark. Not a huge alteration in the pricing, but enough to warrant notice.
Too many “what ifs” reside around the road team in this meeting and I’ll be going against that.
Play: Padres ML (-124); Risk 1.24 units to win 1.00
MLB Record: 2-2 (-0.35)
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