We've got a rubber match happening in Kansas City this afternoon.
At 2:10 p.m. ET, right-hander Brady Singer and the Royals will look to claim the third and final game of this series against fellow righty Joe Ross and the Brewers.
Singer has been exceptional for his team up to this point. He posts an ERA of 2.45, and an xFIP of 3.22.
Plus, his batting average of balls in play (BABIP) is .220, and of those balls put in play over 56% are classified as being grounders.
Throughout the entirety of this season, Milwaukee's bats have been strong versus right-handed pitching, ranking 4th in weighted runs created plus. However, over the past couple of weeks they've fallen out of the top-10.
Conversely, Kansas City has continued to float around the middle of the pack in terms of their offensive success against RHP, sitting at 16th in wRC+.
But they have a quality opportunity to improve on those numbers against Ross.
He's accumulated an ERA of 4.65, while featuring an xFIP of 4.43. His BABIP is .333 and he's walking almost 3.5 batters per nine innings.
Both of these bullpens have been sturdy and present an ERA of 3.76. My expectation is that the Royals will get to Ross early, Singer will hold down the fort and the home team will end up victorious.
The markets opened KC around -122, they then leaped to as high as -130, but have now gone as low as -115. The reason being because Christian Yelich will be making his return to the lineup after being out for over three weeks with a back injury.
I don't necessarily agree with such a heavy alteration in the odds due to the addition, but I suppose it gives us Royals backers a better price.
Play: Royals ML (-115); Risk 1.15 units to win 1.00
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