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  • Writer's pictureDanny Burke

Marlins @ A's Preview & Bet

The Oakland Athletics are currently on a five-game win streak. Who would’ve thunk it?


This afternoon they’ll be looking to extend that to six games behind their starter Paul Blackburn.


The right hander, in 35 innings of work, has accumulated an ERA of 3.34 and an xFIP of 3.57. 


He’s been excellent at forcing hitters into grounders with a rate of 49.5%. 


Miami is the 25th-ranked team against RHP in wRC+ this season. 


Blackburn has surrendered 13 runs throughout his last three starts, but today presents a quality opportunity for him to bounce back. 


Opposing the A’s will be southpaw Trevor Rogers. 


The lefty has an ERA of 4.31, but an optimistic xFIP of 3.84. He, too, has a high GB% (51.5%). 


His vulnerabilities reside in walks allowed (3.45 BB/9) and batting average of balls in play (.345). 


Oakland has been slightly below average against lefties this season. They rank 20th in wRC+ vs LHP (90). 


If we look at their sample size since the middle of April, though, throughout 220 plate appearances against LHP, their wRC+ is listed at 100, which ranks them 13th in that span of time. 


If we look at how the Marlins have performed vs RHP in that span of time, well - not much has changed. They are still ranked 25th in wRC+ vs RHP. 


What may also be promising from this Athletics bunch is how their bullpen has been performing. Collectively they feature a 2.47 bullpen ERA. Miami’s bullpen is at 4.39. 


We have seen support in the market for the home team as they opened around -116 and have since been pushed to as high as -145. 


The best number I see available in the state of Illinois is -132, and that’s the price I’m laying on them with the expectation of their winning streak continuing. 


Play: A’s ML (-132); Risk 1.32 units to win 1.00

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