Mets @ Cubs
Chicago has a chance to go on a winning streak if they can pull off a win today, who would’ve thunk it?
After winning their last two games against the Giants, they are now aiming for a third consecutive victory at home against the Mets.
New York went on a streak of their own, having won seven consecutive games after Grimace threw out the first pitch.
Texas finally snapped the streak on Wednesday night with a 5-3 victory.
First pitch is scheduled for 1:20 p.m. CT at the Friendly Confines. We could be in store for a pitchers duel.
The Cubs’ ace, Shota Imanaga, is set to start for the home team, while former Cub and fellow lefty, Jose Quintana, gets the nod for the visiting squad.
Imanaga boasts a 1.89 ERA and a 2.76 FIP. His expected ERA is 3.05 and expected FIP 3.48.
His HR/FB ratio is limited to just 7%, his xwOBA is .280 and his xISO displays .146.
In seven home starts, the rookie has not given up more than two earned runs.
Over the past month, though, New York has showcased a powerful offense, leading the league in wRC+ (161) and ranking second in ISO (.242) when facing left-handed pitchers.
Conversely, Chicago ranks 29th in wRC+ (74) and 20th in ISO (.126) versus LHP in that span.
Quintana’s numbers don’t provide as much conviction as Imanaga's, however, against a weaker Cubs’ offense he should be able to mask those concerns for this outing.
His ERA is 4.98, his xERA is 5.17 and his FIP is 5.16.
The southpaw represents a home run to fly ball ratio of 14.3%, a xwOBA of .356 and has a hard hit percentage of 44%.
The conditions at Wrigley appear to feature winds blowing in slightly from right field.
As I hinted earlier, I anticipate a competitive matchup between these pitchers - I plan to focus on the first five innings going under and expect limited scoring.
Play: F5 Under 4.5 (-120); Risk 1.20 units to win 1.00
Mariners @ Marlins
Miami comes into this spot having won 2/3 in their previous series against St. Louis, while Seattle arrives to South Beach after dropping 2/3 in their last series at Cleveland.
Tonight, George Kirby takes the mound for the road team.
Kirby’s numbers have been exceptional, boasting a 3.54 ERA, 3.16 xERA, 2.97 FIP and a 3.31 xFIP.
He is recording nearly nine strikeouts per game, with fewer than one walk per nine innings. His HR/9 rate is 0.94, he holds a 1.01 WHIP, a 35% hard hit rate, and has only conceded four earned runs in his past four starts.
The right-hander will be facing a Marlins lineup that ranks 27th in ISO (.127) and 26th in wRC+ (85) against RHP this season.
Opposing the Mariners offense will be lefty Trevor Rogers.
Rogers’ year has not played out similarly to Kirby’s.
Rogers’ ERA is 5.09, his xERA is 5.00 and his xFIP is 4.47.
He’s walking over four batters per nine innings, has a 13% HR/FB, a WHIP of 1.62 and a xwOBA of .351.
Seattle ranks 11th in ISO (.156) and 19th in wRC+ (94) versus lefties.
The Mariners don’t possess the most intimidating offensive numbers, but they have better talent throughout their lineup and a much bigger advantage with their starter.
Play: Mariners -1.5 (+105); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.05
Carlos Rodon Strikeouts Prop
Rodon’s prop is listed at 6.5 everywhere, however - I’m taking a gander at his alternative number of 7.5.
I don’t mind the idea of looking toward the under 6.5 at the plus price, but I’m going to throw a flat unit with some added security instead.
Rodon is averaging 5.4 strikeouts per start and has gone over 7.5 K’s in just 2/15 outings.
The Braves rank 20th in K-rate (22.4%) against left-handed pitchers this season.
Overall, their hitters have fared well against southpaws with a 108 wRC+ and a .164 ISO.
Rodon’s xFIP has exceeded 4.10 in his last 3/4 contests, so there is a chance he could get beat up and not go as deep as he normally would.
Also, this game may feature rain and a possible delay, which could throw off his rhythm.
The best price I’ve seen to this alternative prop is listed at ESPNBet at -175 odds.
Play: Rodon Under 7.5 K’s (-175); Risk 1.00 units to win .57
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