This series has resulted in an average total of 213.2 points per game.
The total for tonight’s affair is set anywhere from 201 to 202.5. Within this opening round battle, four out of five games have eclipsed that range of points.
I see value in the total going over once again. The market appears to share the same sentiment. At a very respected book - Circa - the total opened at 200 and his ticked up to 202. It’s not a massive leap, but significant enough to recognize.
It did take overtime for the most recent game to get over the total, but both offenses were playing well below their means.
During the regular season the Knicks made 37.3% of their attempts from deep. Throughout this postseason that percentage has dipped to 35.6%.
In Game 4 - the lone meeting to stay under 200 points - New York shot just 26% from 3pt range.
And the woes continued for them as they only made 27.8% from that territory in Game 5.
They’ve also struggled from the charity stripe. During season play they made 78% of their free throws and over the last three games they have stayed under 69% in each one.
The Sixers on the other hand have actually been more efficient from three-point land during the postseason as opposed to the regular season.
In this round of play, Philly is taking 38% of their looks from deep and making 37% of them. During the season they attempted under 34% of their shots from that area and made 36.7%.
In fact, up until Game 4 they shot an average of 43% from beyond the arc.
In that fourth matchup they shot 27.3% (remember that’s the one game to stay under 200 points).
They bounced back in their last effort by going 15-39 from 3pt (38.5%). Perhaps that Game 4 performance was a bit of an aberration for the 76ers.
Though, what was peculiar to witness from Philly in Game 5 was the lack of success they had at the free throw line. Up until that matchup they had averaged 22.3 FTM and 26.5 FTA (84%). They went 13-19 (68.4%) from the line in the fifth meeting.
Being back at home, one would assume those attempts would increase. They’ve averaged 31 FTA in the two games played at the Wells Fargo Center and just 21 at Madison Square Garden.
Essentially what I’m getting to is that Philadelphia should contribute more scoring from the charity stripe and we should expect the Knicks to be more efficient from 3pt territory.
Of course, these are just assumptions - but I’m willing to act on those inklings especially with the total being as low as it is.
Play: NYK/PHI Over 201 (-110); Risk 1.10 units to win 1.00
NBA Record: 46-40-1 (-0.67)
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