Giants @ D'Backs
San Francisco is on the brink of being swept in their three-game series in the desert.
Wednesday should offer a chance for a rebound, though.
Arizona’s offensive success has mainly occurred versus left-handed pitching. They rank 3rd in wRC+ (120) against southpaws.
However, against righties they’ve struggled immensely, sitting 24th in wRC+ (92).
Jordan Hicks will be the RHP they face.
Hicks posts a 2.70 ERA, an expected earned run average of 3.77 and an xFIP of 3.80.
Furthermore, his batting average of balls in play (BABIP) is .254, and 53.3% of that contact results in ground balls. His WHIP (Walks plus hits per innings pitched) resides at 1.11.
As we flip the script, we can see that the Giants will be the lineup opposing a left-handed pitcher.
Jordan Montgomery is the scheduled starter and his year has been underwhelming.
Montgomery’s ERA is 5.48 and has an xFIP of 4.37.
Plus, his BABIP is .340, he’s walking over three batters per nine innings pitched and has a 63% left on-base percentage. His WHIP is 1.56.
He’s also coming off a rough outing, in New York against the Mets, where he surrendered 8 runs on 9 hits throughout 4 innings of work. His BABIP in that game was .500.
San Francisco ranks 2nd in wRC+ vs LHP (148) since the middle of May.
The road team is being dealt at a plus price and we should be chomping at the bit to grab a piece of that.
Play: Giants ML (+114); Risk 1.00 units to win 1.14
Tigers @ Rangers
Another team on the verge of being swept is the Texas Rangers.
They dropped Game 1 to the Tigers by a score of 2-1, and then fell short Tuesday night 3-1.
They should have the advantage this evening, though, against Kenta Maeda.
The veteran right-hander features a 6.25 ERA, a 4.84 xERA and an xFIP of 4.80.
He's prone to giving up the long ball (16% HR/FB), is failing to strand runners on base with just a 63.3% left on-base rate and has a WHIP of 1.41.
Maeda has started four road games and in those spots has surrendered 18 total runs (4.5 per game).
The Rangers' offense appears to have vanished, but if there's a matchup where they could make a comeback this would be it.
Since mid-May, they've dropped to 27th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers (79). However, for the whole season, they're still 12th in wRC+ against righties (101).
Last month was abysmal for the defending World Series champs, but with a favorable pitching matchup and the motivation to avoid a home sweep, tonight's meeting could see a surge in runs.
I'm eyeing their team total. Most books are setting it at 4.5, with the best odds seen at +100 throughout a couple of outlets. However, Caesars Sportsbook is offering a flat four at -133 odds. Given their recent scoring woes, I'm willing to pay a bit more for the added cushion.
Play: Rangers Team Total Over 4 (-133); Risk 1.33 units to win 1.00
Erick Fedde Pitcher Prop:
Over Fedde's past two starts he's walked seven batters. This season he's allowing nearly three walks per nine innings pitched.
Since the start of May, the Cubs' offense ranks 1st in walk rate (10.5%) versus right-handed pitching.
While that has been a statistical hike over the past five weeks, it's not that big of an aberration considering all year they've ranked 2nd in that regard (9.9%).
I see some value in betting Fedde over 2.5 walks at the price of +150.
Let's hope Chicago preaches patience at the plate and improves their ball vision after their offense sparked to life Tuesday night with that heroic comeback.
Play: Erick Fedde Over 2.5 Walks Recorded (+150); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.50 units
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT:
I recently published an article featuring my betting preview of the NBA Finals at The Sporting Tribune.
You can see what series prop I’m playing, player props to consider and much more.
Check it out here: https://t.co/XYz0m5CQ65
And a new episode of "Burke's Beat" released today, featuring NBA Analyst Jacob Roach. Roach and I give our predictions and favorite bets for the finals.
Links to listen: https://linktr.ee/BurkesBeat
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