Rays @ Orioles
Baltimore is seeking a three-game sweep over Tampa Bay.
Cole Irvin will be the pitcher taking the bump for the Orioles in an attempt to do so.
Irvin has a 2.84 ERA and a FIP of 3.46. However, his expected ERA is 4.30 and his expected FIP is 4.04.
Over the past month the Rays have been seeing the ball a lot better against southpaws as they’ve ranked 6th in weighted runs created plus against them (119).
On the other side, Zack Littell is scheduled to start for the road team. The right-hander has a 3.47 ERA, a 3.35 xERA, a FIP of 2.97 and an xFIP of 3.41.
Littell has done well at limiting walks (1.44 walks per nine innings) and home runs (8% HR/FB).
This past month, Baltimore has regressed against RHP - ranking 18th in wRC+ (98).
With the added motivation of avoiding a sweep, along with having the edge in several statistical categories, I believe the plus money is worth a look with the underdog.
Play: Rays Moneyline (+115); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.15
Tigers @ Red Sox
I’ve managed to find a bet in each of the four games within this series and have gone 2-1. We might as well make a wager for the final showdown.
Brayan Bello gets the nod for the home team and his underlying metrics display signs of incoming positive regression.
His ERA is 4.18, but has a xERA of 3.99 - and his FIP is 4.63, but his xFIP is 3.52.
He’s done well at limiting the damage when players have made contact with his pitches as his batting average of balls in play is .256. And a majority of those balls batted have resulted in being grounders (54%).
Casey Mize will oppose him as the starting pitcher for the Tigers. Mize’s numbers don’t exude as much confidence as Bello’s, however.
His ERA 4.71, while his xERA is 4.36. Over his last three starts he’s surrendered 11 earned runs and his average xFIP throughout those games was 4.70.
The market has shown support for the home team, moving them from -140 to as high as -155, and I’m going to do the same. The best price I’ve witnessed is -143 at BetRivers.
Play: Red Sox Moneyline (-143); Risk 1.43 units to win 1.00
Diamondbacks @ Mets
The Snakes have been disappointing this season to say the least. Well, so have the Mets I suppose. But the difference is one of these teams went to the World Series last year - so the bar is set higher.
Nevertheless, where Arizona has provided some success has been against left-handed pitching.
This season they are 6th in wRC+ vs LHP (115).
They will face the veteran lefty Jose Quintana.
Quintana’s season has not gone accordingly considering his ERA is at 5.06, his xERA is 5.08 and his FIP is 4.83.
Even looking at his skill interactive ERA (SIERA - a backward-looking ERA estimator) will show you that he’s performed poorly and that there’s not much to look forward to in terms of improvement.
4.64 is where his SIERA resides.
New York is set to oppose Brandon Pfaadt, the young right-hander who has performed much better this season than he did in his rookie campaign.
His 4.16 earned-run average isn’t sexy, but his xERA of 2.86 certainly is. His FIP of 3.25 and xFIP of 3.67 also draws appeal, along with his 3.58 SIERA, .277 BABIP and HR/FB ratio of just 8.2%.
The Mets have been above average versus RHP - ranking 11th in wRC+ (102).
Arizona's bullpen ERA of 4.31 makes me hesitant to bet on them for the full game.
Additionally, their inconsistency in hitting right-handed pitchers, once Quintana inevitably exits the game, further reinforces my decision to target them for the first half.
Play: Diamondbacks First 5 Moneyline (-115)
Angels @ Mariners
Seattle aims for their third consecutive win against Los Angeles and will have a prime opportunity to do so with Luis Castillo taking the mound.
Castillo has produced a 3.28 ERA and a 3.59 xFIP. He’s given up two earned runs in five straight starts.
The Angels have been very mediocre against RHP and will most likely struggle again.
Griffin Canning is starting for the road squad and his season has been brutal.
He has a 5.08 ERA, 5.15 xERA and a FIP of 5.37. He’s walking over 3.5 batters per nine innings and features a SIERA of 4.95.
Los Angeles’ bullpen, boasting a 4.89 ERA, will also provide some valuable at-bats for the home team. Thus, even if Canning doesn’t falter early, the relief staff will readily take the reins.
The betting market has shifted the Mariners' odds from as low as -184 to over -200. While the moneyline is steep, I'm confident enough in their offense to opt for their runline instead.
Let’s look for a Mariners sweep to conclude the weekend.
Play: Mariners -1.5 (+115); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.15.
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