Penn State @ Ohio State
Will Penn State finally snap the six-game losing streak they are enduring against Ohio State?
In order to do so, this Nittany Lion defense will have to slow down OSU QB Kyle McCord and his 15th ranked passing offense (15.3 yards per completion, 308 PYPG).
McCord has put up solid numbers (1,651 passing yards, 64% completion, 11 TD, 1 INT), but will have his skills put to the test when going up against James Franklin’s defense.
Franklin's defense comes into this matchup ranking 1st in pass defense efficiency, 1st in opponent yards per play (3.42) and 2nd in run defense (2.4 yards per carry).
Plus, Penn State is limiting opponents' 3rd down conversion rate to just 26.5%, which ranks 4th in the country.
But how legit is this PSU defense?
Don’t get me wrong - I do believe they are one of the toughest, but we also have to consider that they’ve faced a cupcake schedule so far. And because of that, perhaps their defensive numbers have been inflated.
PSU previous opponents:
West Virginia (78th total offense)
Delaware (31st in FCS total offense)
@ Illinois (83rd total offense)
vs Iowa (130th total offense, dead last)
@ Northwestern (120th total offense)
vs Massachusetts (87th total offense)
So, yeah, it’s pretty evident why some people - myself included - are a tad timid with this Nittany Lion defense.
Speaking of defense - let’s not neglect that OSU has produced a solid one themselves.
The Buckeyes rank 3rd in pass defense efficiency, allow the 2nd fewest yards per play (4.0), and limit opponents to just 3.2 yards per carry and a 3rd down conversion rate of just 34%.
Not as dominant as Penn State, but still very much respectable numbers; especially when you consider that OSU has endured a tougher schedule.
Moving back to the offensive side, we discussed McCord and OSU, but now let’s take a gander at Franklin’s offense that has received some criticism.
Drew Allar is the QB and has thrown for 1,254 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, 0 interceptions and has a completion rate of 65%.
However, the Nittany Lions rank 79th in passing offense (10.7 yards per completion, 223.3 PYPG).
PSU has leaned on the ground attack frequently - as they rank 15th in the nation in rushing offense (4.6 yards per carry, 203 RYPG). As I mentioned earlier, the Buckeyes have a fairly stout run defense.
Allar hasn't needed to throw the ball consistently because his team has dominated every game thus far. He has yet to face the pressure and adversity of what this upcoming matchup is sure to provide.
In terms of EPA, here’s how these team are stacking up offensively, within the Big 10 Conference specifically.
(Excluding Garbage Time)
Offense Overall:
OSU (2nd)
PSU (4th)
Passing Offense:
OSU (2nd)
PSU (5th)
Rushing Offense:
OSU (6th)
PSU (3rd)
Ultimately, here’s how I see this game playing out…
Penn State’s defense will make some nice stops, bring some pressure on McCord and have themselves feeling okay. But, offensively for PSU, Allar will not have enough success to support them. The Buckeyes defense will frustrate Allar’s passing efforts as well as maintain their ground attack.
Then, inevitably at some point, the Nittany Lions defense will crack and OSU will gain some momentum and eventually pile on some points. Then it will be too little too late for Allar to play catch up.
Ohio State continues their dominance over Penn State and covers the spread while doing so.
Play: OSU (-4); 1.10 unit to win 1.00
Texas Tech @ BYU
I originally scouted this game out because I thought it could potentially be a lookahead spot for BYU.
The Cougars come into this game with a 4-2 record and have the 8th ranked Longhorns to look forward to next week.
I didn’t end up bringing that factor to fruition, because, well, they are four-and-a-half point underdogs in this game.
The handicap I did come to was betting the over on this total.
The big question for this game is whether or not Texas Tech QB Behren Morton will be playing. Apparently, at the moment, he is a game time decision. But the markets are moving as if he is expected to suit up on Saturday.
Circa opened the Red Raiders as a two-point favorite, and are now laying -4.5.
Also, the total opened as low as 51.5 and has moved as high as 52.5. Although, 52 is still available and that’s what I played.
These offense aren’t anything that’ll wow you, but this could turn into a sloppy enough game that will make that side of the ball for both of these teams look better than they actually are.
Texas Tech ranks 58th in total offense and BYU ranks 121st.
One the other side, the Red Raiders rank 69th in total defense (5.3 yards per play allowed, 379 total yards allowed) and the Cougars sit at 96th (5.7 yards per play allowed, 398 total yards allowed).
What was really fascinating to see, and a huge reason into betting this total over, is the time of possession rankings for each squad.
Texas Tech ranks 120th in time of possession and BYU ranks 109th.
What that means is both team are controlling the ball at a low amount, which signals that possessions could change rapidly in this game. So hopefully we don’t see wasted time come off the clock and both these team work quickly to either score, or turn the ball over.
That is a big benefit to betting a total to the over.
I don’t have much concern in trusting the Red Raiders to score points, but I could understand people being a tad fearful from the Cougars perspective.
While their outright numbers, offensively, are not great, we can at least bank on them being consistent in their passing efforts.
BYU ranks 129th in total rushing and has just 170 rushing attempts this season. They don’t care to run the ball, nor should they, because they are terrible at doing so (67.5 rushing yards per game).
And when they are connecting in the passing game, the Cougars are racking up 12.4 yards per completion.
Let’s hope for a healthy Morton at QB and a plethora of points in this contest.
Play: OVER 52; 1.10 units to win 1.00
Clemson @ Miami (+4)
If any of you reading this followed my CFB picks from last week, then you’re going to despise this one. Heck, I even hate it. But sometimes it’s too hard to ignore the numbers.
Yeah yeah, I said that last week, too, but I’m willing to give this Hurricanes unit one more try.
Miami went into the second half with a 17-14 lead over UNC. And, frankly, it should’ve been more. The Hurricanes fumbled the ball going into the end zone at one point; they ended with two total lost fumbles and two interceptions thrown.
And, despite all of that, they had a chance for a backdoor cover at the end of the game.
I thought last week would be a relatively “buy-low” spot on this team after that brutal loss the week prior to Georgia Tech. But, now that you factor that loss to the Yellow Jackets, followed up by a turnover-ridden loss to the Tar Heels - it may be amplified even more so this Saturday.
So let’s answer the question of why I like the home dog in this spot.
The quarterback advantage goes to Tyler Van Dyke.
Van Dyke is completing 70.5% of his passes, has thrown for 1,721 yards and 16 touchdowns. The major red flag is the interceptions, in which he has tossed six of them. But, five of those have been thrown over the last two games. I’m hoping he can break out of this little turnover funk and stay crisp and precise vs the Tigers.
Clemson QB Cade Klubnik has been fine and dandy. Nothing special, nothing terrible.
Klubnik has a 65% completion rate, has thrown for 1,370 passing yards with a TD-INT ratio of 11-2.
Miami ranks 11th in passing efficiency (13.2 yards per completion, 311 PYPG) and Clemson ranks 57th (10 yards per completion, 249 PYPG).
Let’s take a look at some offensive EPA numbers throughout the ACC (excluding garbage time):
Overall Offense:
MIA (1st)
CLEM (7th)
Passing Offense:
MIA (1st)
CLEM (8th)
Rushing Offense:
MIA (3rd)
CLEM (6th)
As long as Van Dyke doesn’t commit egregious turnovers again - this offense should be okay.
It’s not going to be easy, that’s for sure. Clemson has a very stout defense.
The Tigers are 5th in total defense (4.2 YPP allowed, 262 total yards allowed). Without a doubt the Hurricanes will have their hands full.
Though, Miami has a decent defense themselves. They rank 18th in total defense and allow their opponents to average just 5.1 yards per play and 308 total yards.
Furthermore, both of these team are just about even in terms of time of possession and third down conversion rates both offensively and defensively. So there isn't some huge discrepancy between the two, like the point spread may be indicating.
However, where the home team scares you is, like I mentioned, turnovers and then penalties. Miami is committing over seven penalties per game, whereas Clemson is averaging 4.7.
So if Mario Cristobal’s group can limit the damage in both of those areas, then there is no reason they can’t keep things close.
Play: Miami +4; 1.10 unit to win 1.00
Recap:
- Ohio State (-4)
- Texas Tech / BYU Over 52
- Miami (+4)
NCAAF Record: 2-1 (+0.85)
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