Miami +3.5 (-115) @ UNC
It’s funny, I originally came into this game looking for reasons to back the home team. While looking at the surface of this matchup, my instincts led me in that direction. But the further I dug below, the more inclined I found myself into betting the underdog.
Miami is coming off a historically horrific loss to Georgia Tech at home last week, 23-20.
Hurricanes QB Tyler Van Dyke threw three interceptions and the defense allowed a last second touchdown that gave the Yellow Jackets the victory.
However, what will be remembered most is the incompetency from Miami’s Head Coach Mario Cristobal.
There is no explanation for what he did - or rather what he didn’t do. And that was having his QB take a knee, which would have effectively concluded the game. Instead, he allowed his offense to conduct a handoff, which resulted in a fumble and a Georgia Tech recovery that led to their game winning drive.
So I could understand a bettors approach to this game in thinking because of how brutal of a loss that was - that it would be hard for the Hurricanes to bounce back from it and that the locker room may be in shambles. I get that line of thinking.
However, to that extent, us bettors are speculating on that being the case. Yes, I’m sure the team is distraught, but if Cristobal can hold himself accountable to his guys - which seemingly he has - and right this ship, then I believe Miami can match up extremely well against the Tar Heels.
Let’s investigate some of the numbers for both sides.
Offensively speaking, the Hurricanes have the slight edge.
According to collegefootballdata.com, UNC has an offensive PPA (or EPA) of 0.292, along with an offensive success rate of 47%.
Whereas Miami's offensive PPA (or EPA) is 0.407 and their success rate is 51%.
In terms of outright total offense - Miami sits at 7th in the country (506 total yards per game, 7.6 yards per play) and North Carolina ranks 9th (500 total yards, 6.4 yards per play).
Also, the Hurricanes rank 8th in passing efficiency, while UNC is 31st.
Now let’s move on to the defensive side of things.
Miami ranks 9th in total defense, allowing just 4.6 yards per play - and then North Carolina ranks 35th in total defense and allows 5.1 yards per play.
The weather forecast is showing that it’s going to be a cool day that will feature some rain.
Wind typically impacts games more so, but in a tightly contested matchup such as this one, the rain could still make a substantial difference. And what I mean by that is if for some reason the passing efforts are struggling on both sides, then Mario Cristobal’s group has the advantage with the ground attack.
Miami is 13th in rushing offense (211 rushing yards per game, 5.7 yards per carry). The Tar Heels ranked 106th in defensive rush EPA, according to cfb-graphs.com, through week 5 of the season.
UNC doesn’t care to run the ball too much themselves. But, even if they did, the good news for the road team is that they come into this spot ranking number one in the country in run defense. The Canes allow 58 total rushing yards to opponents per game and just 2.3 yards per rush attempt.
If Van Dyke can limit the turnovers - and Miami as a team can diminish their penalties, then there is no reason that they can’t hang in this game.
I’m a big Drake Maye fan, and I believe he will be good enough in this game - just like in every other - to put the Tar Heels in a position to win it. But this line seems a tad inflated due to the embarrassing loss we witnessed from the Hurricanes last week. And I’m looking to take advantage of that.
Play: Miami +3.5 (-115); 1.15 Units to win 1.00
*Available at BetMGM*
Oregon @ Washington
Probably the second most anticipated game of Saturday will feature these two squads up in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States.
Last year, in Eugene, OR, the Huskies ended up on top 37-34. I believe they can replicate that success in this year's showdown, too.
Your current Heisman favorite, and Washington QB, Michael Penix Jr, has his team’s offense looking lethal.
The Huskies average the most yards per play in the country (8.7) and rank first in total offense.
Right behind them, though, are the Oregon Ducks and they come in at number two in terms of total offense.
Defensively speaking, the Ducks should have the advantage. This unit ranks 6th in total defense and is limiting opponents to about 4 yards per play.
The Huskies, defensively, rank 62nd and allow opponents 5.1 yards per play.
I’m not denying that Oregon has one of the nation’s top defenses, but, it should be taken into context a bit.
The Ducks haven’t played the most ferocious of schedules. Texas Tech is an okay team, but nothing crazy (Oregon won 38-30) and despite what people WANT to believe, the fact of the matter is that Colorado is not very good (Oregon won 42-6).
Washington has faced some tougher opponents, including Boise State (Washington won 56-19) and Arizona the other week (Washington won 31-24).
At the end of the day, this matchup comes down to two things for my handicap: Quarterback play and home field advantage.
The Huskies get the nod in both regards.
Penix Jr has a completion percentage of 74.7% on the year and has a 16-2 touchdown to interception ratio.
Don't get me wrong - Bo Nix has been a stud, too. Nix is completing 80.4% of his passes and has a TD-INT ratio of 15-1. And after viewing that, you may ponder why Nix is not the betting favorite for the Heisman.
Well, you have to take into account that Penix Jr has completed only two more passes than Nix, and, yet, has totaled 540 more passing yards.
Give me the southpaw, Penix Jr, and give me a raucous home crowd at Husky Stadium that puts Washington, yet again, over the top of Oregon.
Play: Washington ML (-148); 1.48 units to win 1.00
*Available at Circa*
College Football Record:
1-0 (+1.00)
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