Michigan @ Penn State
Coming into this spot I certainly favored Michigan. And as we’re all aware, so did the betting market.
Circa opened the Wolverines as a five-point favorite heading into Happy Valley. This line bounced back and forth between five and four, yet, we now see the consensus at about four-and-a-half.
The reason I had been hesitant to wager on Michigan, as I’m sure has been the same for many of you - was because of the unknown status of Head Coach Jim Harbaugh.
However, we are now all aware that Harbaugh will be suspended for the final three games of the regular season, starting today at Penn State.
Now, for any other team this would probably scare you off in terms of betting them, especially on the road against one of their toughest conference opponents.
Oddly enough, this is giving me more incentive to back the Wolverines. And, apparently, bettors across the country are thinking alike as we have witnessed this spread go as high as five-and-a-half after the news came out. But, like I noted, it has fallen back to four-and-a-half.
Michigan players, most notably Quarterback J.J. McCarthy tweeted out “Bet” after the suspension was handed down to their coach. Heck, even Tom Brady quote tweeted McCarthy’s tweet and said “Bet” himself.
Look, not to be cliché, but when you get this type of attitude heading into a huge spot, it provides a massive chip on the Wolverines shoulder and a reason to back this squad.
I won’t bother going into all of the stats that prove Michigan is the better team - you already know that. We’ve already seen Penn State QB Drew Allar falter in a big spot at home, against Ohio State, earlier this year, and I can’t imagine he will drastically improve since then. This is a tougher, nastier and, now, more pissed off Wolverines team than that Buckeye bunch.
Clearly, I like the Jim Harbaugh-less Wolverines in this spot, but I’m not infatuated with the idea of laying over four. I waited too long to hear about this news and was unsure of how that would affect the players, so I missed out on the best number. But that isn’t deterring me from getting involved with a bet on them.
So instead of laying the spread, I will choose to put them in a two-team moneyline parlay.
The other team I’m pairing them with resides in this game…
Arizona @ Colorado
Some questionable decision making has been taking place in Boulder. Most notably, Coach Deion Sanders’ decision to relieve Offensive Coordinator Sean Lewis of his play calling duties.
Subsequently, Sanders promoted Analyst Pat Shurmur to take over. In his play calling debut, against Oregon State, the Buffaloes managed just 238 total yards on 4.1 yards per play. Throughout the first three quarters, though, Colorado had just 78 yards of offense and only five points.
Today might not get any easier for this offense as they host a Wildcats defensive line that ranks 24th in HAVOC and 28th in stuff rate. The Buffaloes rank 96th in HAVOC allowed. Shedeur Sanders seems like he takes painful hit after painful hit each game, which makes sense considering his offensive line has allowed the second most sacks in the nation (46). Arizona is sixth in the conference with 23 sacks.
The biggest reason, though, as to why the Wildcats are an attractive parlay partner is because of their quarterback play. Since taking over in the game, on September 30th, vs Washington - Noah Fifita has thrown for 1,452 yards, 14 touchdowns, 4 interceptions and has racked up a completion percentage of 75%.
Those stats could progress even more so against this Buffs defense that is second worst in the nation, allows 6.2 yards per play and also ranks 125th in EPA per play and 124th in success rate.
In the midst of their three-game win streak, the Wildcats still have plenty to play for. As for Colorado, well, it seems like they’re just trying to make it out alive at this point.
Instead of sweating out a near double-digit spread, let’s look to use them as Michigan’s parlay partner.
Play: Parlay - Michigan ML / Arizona ML (-108); Risk 1.08 units to win 1.00
*Number Found at FanDuel*
ICYMI:
Here is a bet I wrote about and dished out on Thursday:
Tennessee @ Missouri
A lot of implications reside in this showdown as the 7-2 Tigers host the 7-2 Volunteers down in Colombia, Missouri.
This game opened at several shops at about a pick’em, and since then we've seen slight money trend toward the road squad.
I tend to disagree with the movement.
If you look at offensive EPA rankings throughout the nation, Mizzou ranks 23rd and Tennessee comes in at 38th. Both teams average about 6.6 yards per play.
I foresee this matchup turning into a pass-heavy atmosphere. The Volunteer’s run defense is limiting opponents to just 2.9 yards per rush attempt and the Tigers’ is allowing just 3.6 yards per carry.
So if the ground game is limited and action throughout the air is needed for both teams - I believe that will favor Mizzou.
Missouri Quarterback Brady Cook, has thrown for 2,471 yards, completed over 67% of his passes and has a TD-INT ratio of 16-5.
The opposing QB, Joe Milton, has racked up 2,016 passing yards, a completion percentage of 65.4% and a TD-INT ratio of 15-4.
Both are strong candidates - but Cook gets the nod.
Also, the Tigers come into this matchup with the nation’s number one red zone offense.
They have scored on 37/38 RZ trips. That is counting field goals, too, though. Ideally, they produce more touchdowns. Out of 38 red zone trips, Missouri has crossed the plane on 25 occasions. Not too shabby to be doing that at a 66% clip.
Conversely, Rocky Top is a little less successful in this area, having scored 21 touchdowns on 41 attempts (51%).
Now, Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium is not necessarily the rowdiest of places in the SEC. But, considering that the Volunteers are getting penalized 8.4 times per game, and they won’t have the crowd on their side - I believe that to be a strong benefit to the home team.
When we look at these defenses, yes, Tennessee has the better numbers. They rank 20th in the nation in defensive EPA and allow 4.7 yards per play, whereas Mizzou ranks 55th and allows 5.3 YPP.
Don’t get me wrong, the Volunteers have a formidable defensive unit, however, when they’ve played offenses that are as good as the Tigers, and especially on the road - they have faltered.
At Florida, they lost 29-16, at Alabama they fell victim 34-20. And then they barely held on at Kentucky the other week, but still surrendered 27 points.
Josh Heupel’s crew will be put to the test in a tough road environment and eventually fall short.
Play: Mizzou +2; Risk 1.10 units to win 1.00
College Football Record: 5-3 (+1.65)
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