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  • Writer's pictureDanny Burke

CFB Week 11 Bet

Tennessee @ Missouri


A lot of implications reside in this showdown as the 7-2 Tigers host the 7-2 Volunteers down in Colombia, Missouri.


This game opened at several shops at about a pick’em, and since then we've seen slight money trend toward the road squad.


I tend to disagree with the movement.


If you look at offensive EPA rankings throughout the nation, Mizzou ranks 23rd and Tennessee comes in at 38th. Both teams average about 6.6 yards per play.


I foresee this matchup turning into a pass-heavy atmosphere. The Volunteer’s run defense is limiting opponents to just 2.9 yards per rush attempt and the Tigers’ is allowing just 3.6 yards per carry.


So if the ground game is limited and action throughout the air is needed for both teams - I believe that will favor Mizzou.


Missouri Quarterback Brady Cook, has thrown for 2,471 yards, completed over 67% of his passes and has a TD-INT ratio of 16-5.


The opposing QB, Joe Milton, has racked up 2,016 passing yards, a completion percentage of 65.4% and a TD-INT ratio of 15-4.


Both are strong candidates - but Cook gets the nod.


Also, the Tigers come into this matchup with the nation’s number one red zone offense.


They have scored on 37/38 RZ trips. That is counting field goals, too, though. Ideally, they produce more touchdowns. Out of 38 red zone trips, Missouri has crossed the plane on 25 occasions. Not too shabby to be doing that at a 66% clip.


Conversely, Rocky Top is a little less successful in this area, having scored 21 touchdowns on 41 attempts (51%).


Now, Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium is not necessarily the rowdiest of places in the SEC. But, considering that the Volunteers are getting penalized 8.4 times per game, and they won’t have the crowd on their side - I believe that to be a strong benefit to the home team.


When we look at these defenses, yes, Tennessee has the better numbers. They rank 20th in the nation in defensive EPA and allow 4.7 yards per play, whereas Mizzou ranks 55th and allows 5.3 YPP.


Don’t get me wrong, the Volunteers have a formidable defensive unit, however, when they’ve played offenses that are as good as the Tigers, and especially on the road - they have faltered.


At Florida, they lost 29-16, at Alabama they fell victim 34-20. And then they barely held on at Kentucky the other week, but still surrendered 27 points.


Josh Heupel’s crew will be put to the test in a tough road environment and eventually fall short.


Play: Mizzou +2; Risk 1.10 units to win 1.00


College Football Record: 5-3 (+1.65)


*If any other bet(s) is added I will tweet about it, or write about it here*



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