Can Jim Harbaugh finally do it? Can he seal the deal in the collegiate realm and then head back to the NFL?
I believe so. However, that doesn’t mean the bet I’m giving out is Michigan moneyline or laying the now consensus spread of -5. I will be seeking an alternative direction with my beliefs in this Wolverines squad.
But, first - let me explain why I think Harbaugh’s group gets the job done.
I have been as big of a Michael Penix Jr. fan as anyone out there. I took him to win the Heisman a couple months ago and, naturally, was very disappointed when he fell short. It was aggravating to see people not give him the total respect he deserved until after beating Texas in the semifinal game. Now, yes, I’m being a tad hyperbolic, but, still, it did appear over social media that a lot of people weren’t giving him his flowers until after that win. And I, along with a lot of other people, were sitting there wondering where that praise had been all season. I’m not saying that Jayden Daniels wasn’t deserving of it, per se, but just that Penix Jr. should’ve been considered more seriously in the race when it came down toward the end of the season. Alright, enough of my complaints, let’s continue with tonight’s game…
Again, I respect the hell out of Washington’s quarterback, but I don’t think he’ll have enough support around him to overcome their opponent this evening.
Michigan ranks first in the nation in total defense by limiting their opponents to just 243 total yards per game. They also allow just 4.3 yards per play.
Where does this Huskies team thrive? In the passing game. And, unfortunately for them, the Wolverines have allowed the second fewest passing yards per game (150) this season.
Can Washington rely on their running back Dillon Johnson to produce anything stellar? Well, for starters, despite appearing as if he’ll play tonight, we have to remember he may be banged up from their previous game against the Longhorns last week. And, more importantly, Michigan also excels in limiting their opponents ground attack to just 3.0 yards per carry (5th) and 93 rushing yards per game (8th).
Furthermore, Coach Harbaugh’s defense also has the best turnover margin in the country at +17, whereas Washington is at +2.
And, finally, let’s point out the red zone efficiencies of both teams on both sides of the ball.
Offensively, the Wolverines have had 62 red zone trips and have scored a touchdown on 72.5% of them. On the other side, the Huskies have been involved in 71 red zone trips and have crossed the plane 67.6% of the time.
Defensively, Michigan has been fantastic. When you include their opponents field goal scores, along with touchdown scores, they stack up as the second best red zone defense in the nation (69.6%). But, when we narrow it down to just touchdowns allowed, it gets even more dominant. In that regard, the Wolverines have allowed just 10 touchdowns on 23 attempts from their opponents (43%). Washington, with field goals included, is allowing their opponent to score when entering the red zone at a clip of 84%. When we look at solely touchdowns, then that number is 35 allowed on 50 attempts, which comes out to a rate of 70%.
So the big advantage in the red zone goes to the team that is favorite in this game.
However, the advantage that Coach Kalen DeBoer’s team does have is the quarterback and overall offense. Yes, J.J. McCarthy can produce some magic from time to time, but the slight nod goes to Penix Jr. Although, by the end of the game - due to Michigan’s powerful defense and Washington’s lackthereof - McCarthy may appear as the better QB.
And on both sides of the ball, the Wolverines should have the advantage in the trenches. Let’s also not neglect the experience of the roster, which benefits Michigan, and, in my mind, the coaching, too.
So after seeing all of that you’re probably wondering why I’m not on the Wolverine’s spread or moneyline. Well, the reason for that is because the line has moved fairly aggressively. At Circa Sportsbook, they opened Michigan at -3.5, with a -165 ML price. Currently, it’s listed at -5 with a ML price of -215.
I don’t want to chase that steam. Rather, I am going to wait and see if we can get a better in-game number. Penix Jr. and his offense are good enough to keep up early on, or perhaps even get the initial lead in this matchup. If that’s the case, then that will more than likely present us with an opportunity to live bet a more affordable number - in-game - with the Wolverines.
Patience will be implemented in that regard, but where I am putting a pre-flop wager down is surrounding the total touchdowns scored by Michigan.
The best price I’ve seen on this wager is being offered at DraftKings: Over 3.5 total touchdowns scored (-150).
Originally, I gravitated to betting the full game over the total of 55.5, but as I stated above, I think the Wolverines defense will at some point cause a lot of problems for the Huskies offense and would hate for the total to stay under because of their lack of success.
That’s why I’m focusing on what I consider to be the better and more reliable team in this situation. And the team that I’m trusting is facing a defensive group that is surrendering 3.1 touchdowns per game. Their number has risen to 3.7 over their last three spots and is worse on the road (3.4) compared to at home (2.9).
Michigan racks up 4.3 touchdowns per game themselves, and have done so against tougher defensive competition this season throughout the Big 10.
I did consider just doing their team total over 30.5, but I figure this to be the smarter way to approach it. In order for Michigan to get over 30.5 total points you have to assume they are at least getting four touchdowns. If they only get three, then we are projecting them to be at 21 points and they would then need four field goals to get over 30.5 points. I’d be shocked if the Wolverines knock in four field goals. Also, don’t forget the numbers that I mentioned which display the poor red zone defensive efficiency out of Washington, which in turn should bode well for their opponent having more opportunities to score touchdowns.
Realistically, if the Wolverines are getting over their team total they are going to do so by getting into the end zone four times. And if they don’t get over their team total, though, we can still hit the over 3.5 total touchdowns bet considering they could score 28 points on four touchdowns. That’s why I’m willing to lay a little more for the total touchdowns wager as opposed to the total points.
That is what I am officially rolling with before the game begins, and, additionally, I will be waiting for a live bet with the same squad if presented a viable opportunity.
Play: Michigan Over 3.5 Total Touchdowns Scored (-150); risk 1.50 units to win 1.00
College Football Record: 10-7 (+1.21)
Comentarios