Phillies (+132) vs Braves
As we witnessed last night, Bryce Harper and the Phillies took Orlando Arcia’s comments to heart and played with purpose as they defeated the Braves 10-2.
Will that same intensity carry over into tonight’s matchup? We shall see.
The man they will attempt to do it against is the young righty, Spencer Strider.
Strider is an impressive 8-0 in eight regular season appearances vs the Phillies, with a 1.90 ERA and a total of 72 strikeouts.
However, in the postseason, Strider is 0-2 with an ERA of 5.79 against Philadelphia.
His most recent playoff start against Harper and company came in Game 1 of this series. Strider went 7.0 IP, allowed 5 hits and 2 runs (1 ER), along with 8 K’s and 2 walks. FanGraphs listed his FIP for that outing at 4.11.
Look, I’m as big a Strider fan as anyone. Not only because I was sweating out Cy Young tickets on him, but because he rocks a fantastic stache. I mean, you gotta respect the killer facial hair game from the kid.
Getting back to business - I see it as a benefit to the Phillies lineup that they will be seeing someone they are very familiar with - and someone they faced just a few days ago. In this season alone, including the playoffs, the Phillies have gone up against Strider five different times.
As for the home team - the southpaw, Ranger Suarez, will be taking the bump.
Suarez does not have the most efficient numbers throughout the regular season, but has performed well when needed most. That includes Game 1 of this series against Atlanta, where Suarez allowed just one hit through 3.2 scoreless innings. FanGraphs listed his FIP at 1.89 for that short outing.
Also, last postseason, Suarez pitched against Atlanta, and in that game he went 3.1 IP, and allowed just one run.
Looking at a bigger sample size, though, in 16 regular season appearances vs his division foe, Suarez is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA. He squared off against them once this season, back on June 20th, and went 6.0 IP, allowed 4 hits, 1 ER and tallied a strikeout to walk ratio of 7-2.
Yes, there is familiarity with Suarez against the Braves bats, however, the assumption is that Suarez will be utilized similarly to how he was in the first game of this series. So that would entail Suarez pitching a gem for the first few innings, and then letting their bullpen take over for the rest. So, ideally, Suarez won’t go through the batting order multiple times.
And mind you, throughout this postseason, the Phillies bullpen has allowed just 3 ER and 13 total hits. Their ERA is 1.84 and they have a WHIP of 1.16.
At this point in the year - it’s tough to get a gauge on which metrics and which batting / pitching numbers are going to be reliable. That’s what makes the playoffs so exciting, yet, simultaneously very frustrating as a bettor.
That’s why I am targeting the plus money in this spot. There’s not enough conviction in the Braves to justify laying around -150. Especially after they added fuel to the fire for the Phillies bats.
Plus, that home crowd at Citizens Bank Park is outstanding. They are going to let the 24-year-old, Strider, absolutely hear it tonight. Will he falter in the limelight like we’ve seen many times? I sure hope so. Because if Philadelphia can’t win this game, then they can’t win the series. It’s do or die for them in this spot and I’m willing to ride with them.
Play: Phillies (+132); 1 Unit to win 1.32
*+132 available at Circa*
NHL:
Well it was yet another rough night on the ice last evening. One of those nights where all the leans hit and not the one bet that you actually played. And to make matters worse, it wasn’t just the fact that the Jets lost - it was how they lost. Winnipeg gave up the game winning goal with about 90 seconds to go. They were outplaying the Flames for a majority of the game, but shot themselves in the foot too many times. They surrendered back-to-back penalties in the first period, which led to the first goal, and then gave up a short-handed goal that led to the Flames third of the game. Despite all of that, the Jets were still in a position to win it, but ultimately fell short.
Anyways, enough complaining - let’s move on to today…
Blues @ Stars
Opened: DAL (-210) / STL (+175)
The Stars aren’t satisfied with their playoff exit this past year - they have expectations to be hoisting Lord Stanley - and I believe those sights are set appropriately for this bunch.
This is a star-studded Dallas unit that brings back an offense featuring the likes of Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski and Roope Hintz.
Plus, the Stars added Matt Duchene after his buyout with the Predators. Last season, Duchene scored 22 goals and racked up 34 assists in 71 games for Nashville.
Between the pipes, Goaltender Jake Oettinger will look to start out his 2023-’24 campaign on a high note. The last memory of him on the ice involved surrendering 6 goals in an elimination game to the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Vegas Golden Knights.
Nevertheless, it’s a new season and there’s a lot to look forward to out of the kid. He is only 24 years old and is one of the better netminders in the league. He’ll be fine and continue to dominate throughout this regular season - just like we witnessed him do last year by going 37-11-11, with a 2.37 goals against average (GAA) and a save percentage of 92%. Plus, Oettinger finished 8th in GSAx (Goals saved above expected).
As for the opposition this evening, well, it features a Blues defense that returns practically the same group. And that group allowed 3.63 goals per game. Meanwhile, the Stars averaged 3.43 goals per game, which ranked 6th highest in the NHL.
It appears that St. Louis will be trusting the veteran, Jordan Binnington, to tend the pipes for their first game.
Last season Binnington struggled…to put it politely.
The 30-year-old finished 27-27-6, with a 3.31 GAA, an 89.4 SV% and a -6.45 GSAx stat line that ranked him 95th.
Last season, the Stars finished 5th in PP% (25%) and 3rd in PK% (83.5%). The Blues finished with a 19.3% success rate on the power play and a 72.4% clip on the penalty kill.
Some books have moved Dallas to as high as -230 favorites. Certainly I’m not looking to touch that price. Instead, I will look to target the Win in Regulation, or 60-minute line, bet. I’m doing this as opposed to the puckline because it’s game one, and some fluky things may occur, or perhaps the Stars come out a little rusty. Whatever it may be, I just prefer to add a bit more security in this spot.
Play: Stars Win in Regulation (-127); 2 Units to win 1.57
*-127 available at BetRivers.*
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