The talk around the Lions' running back room has been the lack of usage with tailback Jahmyr Gibbs.
Detroit’s front office drafted him earlier than expected and afterwards were seen celebrating as if they had just won the Super Bowl.
Yet, Gibbs hasn’t been utilized as frequently as fantasy owners would like.
Why is that?
Well, the main reason is because the former Chicago Bear, David Montgomery, has been an absolute workhorse for this team.
Throughout three games played, Montgomery has totaled 262 rushing yards on 69 rush attempts (3.8 YPC).
In his last game, Montgomery ran the ball a whopping 32 times for 121 yards against the Packers.
Montgomery’s rushing prop for this week is set in the low 70s.
I don’t care to look at his prop, though, as his numbers have been inflated. However, rightfully so based on production.
Instead, the buy-low opportunity resides with the rookie, Gibbs.
The market is varying with his rushing yards prop:
Consensus - 38.5
FanDuel - 32.5 (-114)
PointsBet - 30.5 (-125)
Quite the discrepancy, eh?
I’m going to take advantage of that and bet the over.
Despite not being RB1, Gibbs is still racking up 4.6 yards per rush attempt.
Gibbs is averaging just under 10 carries for about 45 yards per game and, in fact, has gone over 30.5 rushing yards in 3/4 contests thus far.
Plus, he gets to face the 32nd ranked DVOA run defense and 32nd ranked run defense in terms of EPA.
The Lions are a consensus 10-point favorite against the Panthers. And if that spread holds true, then Detroit should have their way with Carolina on Sunday.
That means that not only will the Lions run the ball consistently late in the game to wind down the clock, but that Montgomery may take a seat early if Dan Campbell’s squad has a comfortable lead. It’s a perfect time to let the rookie gain some meaningful reps while simultaneously maintaining the health of your top tailback.
In each game so far, the Panthers have allowed each first and second string running back to get over the mark of 30.5 rushing yards, with the exception of Jamaal Williams who ended with 29 after exiting the game early with a hamstring injury.
Let’s hope Gibbs gets a healthy dosage of handoffs and some open lanes against the worst run defense in the NFL.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 30.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
*If you can't get the 30.5, I'd still play it up to 32.5*
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