Happy Tuesday, everyone! I hope your week started strong and you found a way to live bet the Mariners. It seemed like all of my friends who casually bets baseball sent me screenshots of their winning slips on Seattle. I saw a ticket as high as +730.
It's not just the fact that they constantly blow leads; it's more about how they manage to do so.
A game-tying bunt with two outs?! Only the White Sox.
After that occurred you knew they had no chance, but to add more insult to injury - it just had to be a walk-off with the bases juiced.
Heck, I took part with the in-game festivities when it happened last week after they were leading against the Cubs, and again on Sunday when they had the upper hand against the Red Sox. The Southsiders ended up losing both of those games, per usual.
Obviously, it's not something that's going to happen every time (though the White Sox might be bad enough to allow it), but it's definitely something worth keeping on your radar.
Let’s move along…
We kicked-off our week with a pair of winners from yesterday’s article:
Twins -1.5 (-105); Risk 1.50 units to win 1.43 Win
Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 K’s (+110); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.10 Win
Let's dive into today's analysis and see if we can maintain that momentum.
Weather Report
With the exception of one game, we’re going to see another slate of calm conditions throughout the evening.
In Minnesota, though, it does appear that there will be winds upwards of 13 MPH, blowing out to right-center field.
On the Move:
***Odds around 12:50 p.m. ET***
Pirates @ Cardinals
Circa Opener: PIT (-120) | STL (+110)
Circa Currently: PIT (-129) | STL (+118)
Phillies @ Red Sox
Circa Opener: PHI (-165) | BOS (+150)
Circa Currently: PHI (-159) | BOS (+145)
Astros @ Giants
Circa Opener: HOU (-110) | SF (+100) | Total: 7
Circa Currently HOU (+104) | SF (-114) | Total: 8
Pitching Projections
Keep in mind, I try avoiding the blatantly obvious candidates in this section. Meaning, guys like Max Fried and Zack Wheeler won’t be necessary to add under the “On the Rise” section considering our recognition of their dominance. The same goes for pitchers who are consistently struggling.
On the Rise:
Zach Eflin vs Cubs
Eflin:
4.14 ERA, 3.48 xERA, 3.54 FIP, 3.72 xFIP
3.85 SIERA, 0.57 BB/9, 9.8% HR/FB, 41% GB, .299 BABIP, 1.14 WHIP
Every pitcher's eyes light up when they realize they're scheduled to start against this woeful Cubbies lineup. Chicago ranks 17th in wRC+ (98) and 25th in K% (24.3%) versus right-handed pitchers. Eflin's numbers hold strong across the board and should improve after tonight's outing.
Paul Skenes @ Cardinals
Skenes:
3.00 ERA, 2.79 xERA, 3.04 FIP, 2.15 xFIP
12.67 K/9, 2.00 BB/9, 2.29 SIERA, .293 BABIP, 84.8% LOB, 50% GB, 1.00 WHIP
This acknowledgement may seem obvious, but his metrics suggest that he could be performing even better than he already has. St. Louis's wRC+ is 104 against right-handers, indicating they are slightly above average. The market is imposing a Skenes tax on the moneyline, so I probably wouldn't advise laying such a big price with a below-average team. However, it's worth noting Skenes' projections.
Due for Decline:
Jameson Taillon @ Rays
Taillon:
3.47 ERA, 3.68 xERA, 4.10 FIP, 4.37 xFIP
.302 BABIP, 4.47 SIERA, 1.36 WHIP
Taillon has come up big for the Cubs in much-needed spots, however, he’s been due to struggle. We witnessed the beginning of it last week versus the White Sox, where he allowed 5 ER, 10 hits in 5.0 IP. He’s also faltered more on the road with a 4.83 xFIP compared to 3.97 at the Friendly Confines. Tampa Bay is desperate to get back into the win column following their four-game sweep at the hands of the Orioles; and going against Taillon might just put them there.
Tylor Megill vs Marlins
Megill:
3.00 ERA, 4.48 xERA, 2.91 FIP, 4.10 xFIP
3.86 BB/9, 66.4% LOB, 35.2% GB, 50% FB
The good news for Megill is that the Marlins sit 28th in ISO (.127) and 26th in wRC+ (88) against righties. He’s only pitched in 21 innings. However - the underlying numbers indicate problems could persist. We saw a glimpse of the issues in his last start on the road against the Nationals, where he allowed 4 ER throughout 5 IP. His xFIP has been over 5.30 in two out of his four starts.
Cal Quantrill @ Twins
Quantrill:
3.58 ERA, 4.17 xERA, 4.45 FIP, 4.43 xFIP
3.58 BB/9, .274 BABIP, 11% HR/FB, 4.73 SIERA, 1.30 WHIP
I attempted to fade the right-hander in his prior outing at St. Louis. Despite his xFIP being 6.83 after the start, he managed to go five-scoreless innings, allowing just three hits, four walks and one strikeout. The Twins are top-10 in wRC+ (110), wOBA (.321) and OPS (.727) against RHP the last two weeks.
Marcus Stroman @ Royals
Stroman:
3.04 ERA, 4.53 xERA, 4.82 FIP, 4.49 xFIP
3.77 BB/9, .248 BABIP, 13.3% HR/FB, 4.61 SIERA
The rise and fall of Stroman has been a reliable expectation since his tenure with the Cubs. He starts hot, but then batters catch up. In his last start, he gave up five earned runs on six hits to the Twins. His postgame xFIP hasn’t dipped below 4.12 in his last three outings. The Royals rank 9th or better in wRC+ (110), wOBA (.329), OPS (.761), and ISO (.186) against RHP the past two weeks.
James Paxton vs Rangers
Paxton:
4.19 ERA, 5.34 xERA, 5.35 FIP, 5.38 xFIP
5.69 SIERA, .267 BABIP, 38.7% GB, 10.6% HR/FB, 1.49 WHIP, 1.3% K-BB ratio
Paxton might represent the largest potential for regression on tonight’s slate. It’s somewhat miraculous that he’s 5-1 despite walking over five batters per nine innings and posting an expected ERA and xFIP over 5.00. I suppose having the bats that the Dodgers do helps plenty. His last start resembled what could be more to come - going 1.2 innings, allowing 6 earned runs on 6 hits. The defending World Champions are top-5 in wRC+ (133), wOBA (.360), and OPS (.822) against left-handed pitchers during the past 14 days.
Burke’s Bets:
Cubs @ Rays
Here we go fading the Northsiders again.
As noted above, there is a bit of a discrepancy in the pitching matchup for this meeting:
Eflin:
4.14 ERA, 3.48 xERA, 3.54 FIP, 3.72 xFIP
3.85 SIERA, 0.57 BB/9, 9.8% HR/FB, 41% GB, .299 BABIP, 1.14 WHIP
Taillon:
3.47 ERA, 3.68 xERA, 4.10 FIP, 4.37 xFIP
.302 BABIP, 4.47 SIERA, 1.36 WHIP
Eflin’s advantage, along with the necessity for rebounding after getting swept in four games at home, should warrant consideration on the side of Tampa Bay.
The Rays' bats have actually been worse than the Cubs', but I believe this will be a spot where they can be revived against a pitcher like Taillon, who has not only been due to regress - but has also struggled in road spots.
Play: Rays ML (-139); Risk 1.39 units to win 1.00
Cal Quantrill Outs Recorded - 17.5
I’m heading back to the well in an attempt to fade Quantrill. There’s a reason he fell under the “Due to Decline” territory and I’m expecting those reasons to come to fruition in Minnesota.
He has an xERA of 4.17 and an xFIP of 4.43. He’s walking over 3.5 batters per nine innings, is susceptible to giving up home runs (remember the wind is blowing out at Target Field) and his skill interactive ERA is 4.73.
The Twins are top-10 in wRC+ (110), wOBA (.321) and OPS (.727) against RHP the last two weeks.
The right-hander is averaging 16.8 outs recorded per start. He’s eclipsed 17.5 outs in 8/13 appearances.
This is why the books are offering such a high number. BetRivers is dealing the 17.5, with -127 juice toward the under and I’m placing a bet in that direction.
Play: Cal Quantrill Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-127); Risk 1.27 units to win 1.00
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