Weather Report
In today’s seven-game slate the weather conditions are fairly tame across the board and should not cause enough impact to warrant a deeper discussion.
On the Move
***Odds around 11:15 a.m. ET ***
Orioles @ Rays
Circa Opener: BAL (-150) | TB (+137)
Circa Currently: BAL (-137) | TB (+125)
Rockies @ Twins
Circa Opener: MIN (-205) | TB (+185)
Circa Currently: MIN (-225) | TB (+203)
Blue Jays @ Brewers
Circa Opener: MIL (-110) | TOR (+100) | Total: 8.5
Circa Currently: MIL (-105) | TOR (-105) | Total: 8
Pitching Projections
On the Rise:
Chris Paddack (MIN) vs Rockies
Paddack:
5.26 ERA, 4.21 xERA, 4.17 FIP, 3.83 xFIP
3.81 SIERA, 1.94 BB/9
The 28-year-old’s earned run average is intimidating in all the wrong ways, but the underlying metrics display positive regression is near. His BABIP is .337, which could signal that he is getting a bit unlucky and things may alter soon; especially against a Colorado offense that ranks 29th in wRC+ vs RHP (79).
Due for Decline:
Dakota Hudson (COL) @ Twins
Hudson:
5.25 ERA, 5.46 xERA, 5.29 FIP, 5.12 xFIP
5.36 SIERA, 1.52 WHIP, 4.82 BB/9, 65.8% LOB, 12.3% HR/FB
Perhaps, for Hudson, this should be labeled "Due for Destruction" rather than "Due for Decline." His numbers have been underwhelming all year and the expectation is that he’s overdue to get pummeled. He’s consistently been below-average, but hasn’t gotten completely rocked yet. He’s only tallied one outing where he finished with an xFIP under 4.33. Over the past two weeks the Twins ranks 10th in wRC+ vs RHP (109) and are 14th throughout the entire season (100). Their ISO vs RHP puts them 5th in the big leagues (.164).
Jose Berrios (TOR) @ Milwaukee
Berrios:
2.80 ERA, 4.41 xERA, 4.41 FIP, 4.10 xFIP
4.18 SIERA, 1.11 WHIP, 13% HR/FB
Granted, Berrios’ stat line isn’t extremely concerning, but enough to recognize what could potentially come. It’s especially important to note when he’ll be facing a Brewers offense that sits 3rd in wRC+ vs RHP (117).
Colin Rea (MIL) vs Blue Jays
Rea:
3.53 ERA, 5.56 xERA, 4.58 FIP, 4.62 xFIP
4.75 SIERA, 1.35 WHIP, 3.25 BB/9, 10.5% HR/FB
Rea’s projections raise the most red flags on tonight’s MLB slate. Maybe Rea can slide by against a middling Toronto lineup that resides 15th over the last two weeks in wRC+ vs RHP (96). However, win/loss wise the Blue Jays have gone 9-4 over their last 13 games.
Kyle Harrison (SF) vs Astros
Harrison:
4.18 ERA, 4.69 xERA, 4.11 FIP, 4.24 xFIP
4.06 SIERA, 1.39 WHIP, .330 BABIP, 10% HR/FB
The southpaw is set to face a top-10 lineup in wRC+ against lefties (113). Despite being pulled from the last game after being hit by a pitch in his hand - Alex Bregman is expected to return to the lineup. Harrison has surrendered 17 ER in his last five starts.
Burke’s Bets
Rockies @ Twins
I've already outlined the pitching matchup above, expressing my desire for Paddack to perform as projected and pitch smoothly, while hoping for Hudson to disappoint even more significantly.
Like I acknowledged, during the past two weeks the Twins have ranked 10th in wRC+ vs RHP (109) and 14th throughout the entire season (100). Their ISO vs RHP puts them 5th in the big leagues (.164).
Their prior series was peculiar, hopefully just an aberration, as they were shutout on both Friday and Saturday before finally scoring 11 runs in Pittsburgh, averting a potential three-game sweep.
I’m banking on that momentum carrying over to tonight and leading to a comfortable victory against one of the worst teams in the league.
Play: Twins -1.5 (-105); Risk 1.50 units to win 1.43
Yankees @ Royals
The lefty Carlos Rodon is set to start for the Yankees.
He’s only given up 7 ER throughout his last four starts, however - his average xFIP during that span was 4.24.
He posts a 3.08 ERA, but an xERA of 4.24. Plus, his FIP is 4.23 and xFIP is at 4.26.
The reason I didn’t put him in the "Due for Decline" section is because several other metrics display solid numbers for him still.
That doesn't mean he’s protected from taking a potential beating, though.
His ground ball rate is alarmingly low compared to his fly ball rate - 32.5% vs 50.7%.
Kansas City has crushed lefties since the start of May - ranking 2nd in wRC+ (138) and 5th in K% (19.2%).
Rodon is averaging about 5.5 strikeouts per game. That’s where his strikeout prop is listed for tonight’s affair. DraftKings has the best price to the under 5.5 at +110.
Considering the potential for Rodon to struggle and the Royals' proficiency against left-handed pitchers, I'll venture to bet that he'll stay under that threshold.
Play: Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110); Risk 1.00 units to win 1.10
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