Hello, everyone!
I’ll be trying something a little different - rather than just listing a play or two within the Major League Baseball slate, going forward I’ll be publishing more of a betting report.
I’ll have a block that contains games impacted severely by weather. I’ll list notable pitchers that have the large discrepancies in their underlying metrics, whether it’s good or bad, along with intriguing matchups in general. Furthermore, I’ll list games that feature sizable alterations in their odds so you can be aware of the biggest market movers and at the end I'll release my best bets.
Hope you enjoy and are able to gather valuable information out of it.
Weather Report
Twins @ Pirates, 6:40 p.m. ET
Wind is blowing out 10-13 MPH to left-center field
Brewers @ Tigers, 6:40 p.m. ET
Wind is blowing out to left-center field as high as 15 MPH
Braves @ Nationals, 6:45 p.m. ET
Wind is coming across the infield from third base to first base over 13 MPH
Dodgers @ Yankees, 7:05 p.m. ET
Wind is blowing out 9-12 MPH to right-center field
Cubs @ Reds, 7:10 p.m. ET
Wind is blowing out to left-center field 8-12 MPH
Mariners @ Royals, 8:10 p.m. ET
Wind is blowing out to left field at 8-12 MPH
On the Move:
Orioles @ Rays
SuperBook Opener: BAL (-115) | TB (+105)....Total: 7.5
SuperBook Currently: BAL (+101) | TB (-111)....Total: 8.5
Cubs @ Reds SuperBook Opener: CIN (-113) | CHC (+103)
SuperBook Currently: CIN (-127) | CHC (+117)
Blue Jays @ Athletics
Circa Opener: TOR (-133) | OAK (+122)
Circa Currently: TOR (-160) | OAK (+146)
Dodgers @ Yankees
SuperBook Opener: LAD (-118) | NYY (+108)
SuperBook Currently: LAD (-138) | NYY (+128)
Pitching Projections
On the Rise:
Joe Ryan (MIN) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Ryan:
3.38 ERA, 3.09 xERA, 3.49 FIP, 3.17 xFIP
1.01 WHIP, .276 BABIP, 1.38 BB/9, 3.10 SIERA
The Twins' right-hander is coming off his worst outing of the year, allowing 5 ER, 4 HR in 5 IP at Houston. A bounce-back could be expected against a Pirates offense that ranks 28th in wRC+ vs RHP (81).
Aaron Civale (TB) vs the Baltimore Orioles
Civale:
5.37 ERA, 4.00 xERA, 4.48 FIP, 3.85 xFIP, 3.89 SIERA
Civale's last start was in Baltimore. In that outing he went 5.1 IP, allowed just 1 ER on 6 hits. Perhaps he can find success against the Orioles once again.
Due for Decline:
Cole Irvin (BAL) @ Tampa Bay Rays
Irvin:
2.84 ERA, 4.49 xERA, 3.66 FIP, 4.28 xFIP, 4.28 SIERA
The left-hander's last start came against the aforementioned Rays. He went 6.1 IP, allowed 8 hits and 2 ER. Despite that, his FIP resulted to being 5.35 and his xFIP 6.19 for that game. Tampa's bats could to take advantage this time around.
Michael Lorenzen (TEX) vs San Francisco Giants
Lorenzen:
2.96 ERA, 4.25 xERA, 4.25 FIP, 4.36 xFIP
4.28 BB/9, 4.68 SIERA
The betting market has decided to fade Lorenzen and company - moving the road team from -110 favorites to -118.
Burke’s Bets
Cubs @ Reds
As I noted above, the wind will be blowing out 8-12 MPH and the Reds have received heavy support in the betting market.
I concur with the evaluation of these bettors.
Southpaw Nick Lodolo is starting for the home team and his numbers have been strong:
3.11 ERA, 2.94 xERA, 3.18 FIP, 3.49 xFIP.
He's limited the home run damage with a 8.5% HR/FB ratio, he doesn't walk many batters (1.94 BB/9), has a BABIP of .269 and of those ball batted in play 46% result in grounders.
In a hitter's setting like the Great American Ball Park, it's crucial for the pitcher you back to be able to limit the long ball and unnecessary runners.
Lodolo's last start came @ Wrigley Field where he went 6.0 IP, allowing 2 ER on 7 hits.
Justin Steele, who will be starting for the Chicago, also had his last outing within that series.
At home versus the Reds he surrendered 5 runs, 8 hits, 5 K's, 4 BB's in 5 innings of work. Granted, only one of those runs were technically earned. Regardless, his xFIP came out to 5.83 afterwards.
Steele hasn't looked nearly as efficient as last season, currently posting a 4.10 ERA and a FIP of 4.42. His expected ERA is 3.45 and his expected FIP is 4.04, but that doesn't move the needle too much considering his team's bullpen and offense have been hot garbage as of late.
Since May 1st, the Cubs' lineup ranks 29th in wRC+ vs LHP (71) and their bullpen has accumulated an ERA of 4.35 in that span.
Within that time frame, the Reds relief staff has managed a 3.61 ERA and their offense sits 11th in wRC+ vs LHP (109).
The best price that I've seen in Illinois is located at FanDuel, where Cincy is laying -120.
Play: Reds ML (-120); Risk 1.20 units to win 1.00
Twins @ Pirates
Minnesota will be eager to get back into the win column following a sweep at the hands of the Bronx Bombers.
As priorly discussed, the Twins' pitcher should be primed to put them in a quality position to do so.
Ryan:
3.38 ERA, 3.09 xERA, 3.49 FIP, 3.17 xFIP
1.01 WHIP, .276 BABIP, 1.38 BB/9, 3.10 SIERA
The righty is coming off his worst outing of the year, allowing 5 ER, 4 HR in 5 IP @ Houston. A bounce-back could be expected against a Pirates offense that ranks 28th in wRC+ vs RHP (81).
On the other side of this handicap we can expect Mitch Keller to take the bump for the home squad.
Keller's ERA is 3.42, his xERA resides at 4.37 and his xFIP sits at 3.92.
His GB% is lower than he'd want (38.2%) and, conversely, his line drive percentage is somewhat alarming at 25.3%.
Over the past couple of weeks, Minnesota has ranked 6th in wRC+ vs RHP (117) and their ISO is .193, which puts them 4th.
Circa Sportsbook has the Twins at the price of -118 and that is what I'll be sweating out in this meeting.
Play: Twins ML (-118); Risk 1.18 units to win 1.00
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