Chicago has been on the struggle bus during the month of May.
9-15 is the record they have assembled. They’ve also dropped their last five consecutive.
On Monday the Brewers overcame seven shutout innings from Cubs’ starter Justin Steele. After he was pulled, Chicago’s bullpen proceeded to surrender five runs and Milwaukee came out on top 5-1.
The betting market is showing support for the home team once again and I can’t say I disagree.
Freddy Peralta is scheduled to start for the Brew Crew, and he’s desperate for a win considering he hasn’t recorded one since April 30th.
He did all he could in his previous effort down in South Beach (7.0 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 7 K’s), but his offense provided no assistance versus the Marlins.
His expectation on the mound this evening should be similar to his last performance.
The Cubs’ offense has been abysmal all season against right-handed pitching as they rank 19th in weighted runs created plus (96). Over the last two weeks it’s gotten worse as they sit 23rd in wRC+ (89).
Conversely, the Brewers have taken advantage of those types of pitchers. They are second-best in wRC+ against RHP (121).
Bruce Brown will be the right-hander they oppose tonight.
In five starts Brown is averaging 4.3 innings pitched. The longest he’s gone is six innings.
His ERA is 3.20, however his expected ERA is 4.76.
If he can’t go deep against Milwaukee then his team will surely find themselves in trouble yet again. Chicago’s bullpen posts an ERA of 4.40 and have been a mainstay in contributing to losses this season.
The moneyline price is a bit steep for me as it’s north of -150. I don’t mind laying the run-and-a-half with the Brewers, with the best price being +138 at BetRivers. Alternatively, you could opt for the -1 runline at -107 odds via the same book and gather some security along the way.
That’s the method I will be utilizing for this matchup.
Play: Brewers -1 (-107); Risk 1.07 units to win 1.00
MLB record: 36-32-1 (-0.43)
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