Jags vs Falcons
I already did a synopsis of this play earlier this week on my Burke’s Beat show…
But, here’s a TLDR for ya:
The Jags have some of the most familiarity with playing in London. We all realize these players travel in luxury, but when you’re going overseas it is certainly a different dynamic.
Jacksonville understands how to get acclimated in the unique setting and will be prepared for the altered scenery.
Atlanta, on the other hand, is a younger, more inexperienced squad that does not have as many players who have traveled to this specific destination to play football, especially together as one unit.
So that should bode well for the Jags.
Furthermore, if you’ve heard or seen me talk about the Falcons, you will recall my lack of faith in Desmond Ridder.
I didn’t understand why the market, and the organization, was/is bullish on this guy. He doesn’t, and seemingly can’t, throw the ball consistently.
Ridder has a plethora of weapons, but doesn’t get to utilize them.
Atlanta is infatuated with their run game, however, they may have to lean on Ridder a tad more in this matchup considering the Jags ranks 4th in DVOA run defense and allow just 3.4 yards per carry (6th).
Jacksonville does rank 25th against the pass, according to DVOA, and did allow Texans Rookie QB CJ Stroud to torch them last week. But even if the Jags secondary is weaker this year, they may look stronger against an inept passer in Ridder.
Plus, Ridder has already gotten sacked 12 times this season. The Jaguars should look to bring the pressure consistently when he drops back, disrupt his rhythm and force him into uncomfortable situations.
Ultimately I’m not too worried about this Jacksonville defense stepping up and fixing their mishaps after last week’s embarrassment.
Speaking of embarrassment, though, Doug Pederson’s offense has been the focal point of that noun for the past two weeks.
This Jacksonville offense was supposed to be moving the ball down the field seamlessly, especially against the Texans defense. And from time to time they did, but even when there were glimpses of hope, a turnover would occur, or the defense would give up a kickoff return touchdown to a fullback.
I know I shared this similar sentiment last week, but this team should feel remorse after their prior performance and be ready to come out firing this Sunday.
And against a Falcons defense that ranks 22nd in DVOA pass defense, Lawrence and company should have ample opportunity to do so.
Don’t let me down, fellas!
Instead of laying the flat three, I laid -148 on the moneyline earlier this week. These overseas games are typically wonky, and the Jags are a little all over the place right now. So at that price, I’d prefer to have not only the security, but the potential avoidance of a push if the game lands on a field goal difference.
As of Friday morning, DraftKings still had that price available.
Play: Jags ML (-148)
Chiefs @ Jets
How in the world is Zach Wilson going to move the ball against Kansas City?
In fact, how the hell is Wilson going to move the ball against any NFL defense?
Wilson has a CPOE (Completion % over Expected) of -7.2%, a success rate of 35.2% and a -0.28 EPA per play as the Jets starting QB.
Here are his more generic statlines through the first three weeks:
Vs BUF: 14-21, 140 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int
@ DAL: 12-27, 170 yards, 1 TD, 3 Int
Vs NE: 18-36, 157 yards, 0 TD, 0 Int
Pretty egregious to say the least.
And it’s not only that his numbers are atrocious, but because of his abysmal play, it’s causing disruption throughout the locker room. You’ve got players yelling at coaches on the sidelines, reporters claiming the players are aggravated in Saleh’s alleged coddling of Wilson and other issues revolving around that.
Well, with all of those problems emerging, there couldn’t be a worse team for New York to face than the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs are not only healthy and have their top guys back, but they finally have a defense that can be relied upon.
DVOA ranks this KC defense 9th overall, 8th vs the pass and then 18th against the run.
According to nfeloapp.com, the Chiefs are 4th best in defensive EPA per play (-0.21).
Here is how the three QBs that Kansas City has faced have fared against them:
Jared Goff: 22-35, 253 yards, 1 TD, 0 Int
Trevor Lawrence: 22-41, 216 yards, 0 TD, 0 Int
Justin Fields: 11-22, 99 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int
I realize we can ignore the Fields statline since that’s just another Sunday for him and the Bears, but it’s important to recognize the limitations the first two QBs endured.
If a guy like Lawrence can barely get over 200 passing yards and winds up with a completion percentage of 53.6% - then what in the world are we expecting Wilson to accomplish?
The answer is not much.
The market on this game has been volatile. KC opened at -8.5 at some books, got to as low as -7.5 and then even as high as -9.5.
At the moment, the lowest spread you can lay with the Chiefs is -8.5.
Now typically I try to avoid big favorites, and especially big favorites on the road. And even more so a big favorite on the road when the game is featured in a primetime slot - in this instance it’s Sunday Night Football.
But like most things in life, there are exceptions.
And in this spot, with a QB who may go down as the greatest of all time going up against a QB who is considered arguably the biggest flop in his draft class, I believe that exception can be made.
The argument to back the Jets would be what…their defense? Yeah, it’s their strong side of the ball, but they are very much underperforming.
New York ranks 24th in DVOA pass defense and is allowing a completion percentage of 69.4% to opposing QBs, which ranks 27th.
Also, they rank 26th in defensive EPA per play vs the pass.
The Jets have been solid against the run, but as we all know that will not be the focal point of KC’s offensive game plan early on.
If somehow the defending Super Bowl Champs allow Zach Wilson and this discombobulated Jets team to be within one score near the end of regulation, then KC should feel ashamed.
There’s no reason the Chiefs can’t win another game in blowout fashion this upcoming Sunday night.
Play: Chiefs (-8.5)
Joe Burrow Passing Yards OVER
Joe Burrow is banged up and has looked rusty - there is no denying that.
But, let’s also recognize that he has faced two solid pass defenses and the Rams.
The Browns currently rank 1st in DVOA pass defense, the Ravens rank 6th and then the Rams rank 20th.
Los Angeles, obviously, is the sore thumb that sticks out, but that’s why we finally witnessed Burrow have his best game so far. And even still he was underwhelming.
Burrow vs LAR: 26-49, 259 yards, 0 TD, 1 Int.
Again, he was playing banged up; and let’s not neglect that his receivers (Tee Higgins) on several occasions did not help his cause.
The good news for Burrow is that this Tennessee secondary will be the worst that he has faced thus far.
The Titans rank 26th in DVOA vs the pass, allowing 10.7 yards per completion (28th) and a completion percentage of 72% (28th) to opposing quarterbacks.
The Bengals will look to expose that, not only because their opponent is lackluster in that region, but because Tennessee is sturdy as hell against the run.
The Titans rank 3rd in DVOA run defense and allow the fewest yards per rush attempt (2.6).
There will be a necessity for the Bengals offense to hone in on the passing game and a great opportunity for Burrow to excel in that department vs an impaired Tennessee pass defense.
BetRivers had the lowest number posted on this prop - 259.5 (-113). If you can’t find that for yourself, well, shop around and play any number available up to 264.5.
Play: Joe Burrow Over 259.5 Passing Yards (-113)
PROP TO CONSIDER
*I have not played this, but if you’re looking for another prop angle, this could be one*
Zack Moss Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Zack Moss has been a major force in this Colts offense thus far.
Moss @ HOU: 18 carries, 88 rushing yards, 1 TD
Moss @ BAL: 30 carries, 122 rushing yards, 1 Rec TD
Moss gets to face a Rams defensive front that is allowing opposing tailbacks 4.5 yards per rush attempt. DVOA ranks them 29th against the run.
Anthony Richardson is expected to play in this game, which I believe benefits this Indianapolis offense tremendously. Richardson brings his dual threat abilities back onto the field, which is always having to keep opposing defenses on their toes.
Considering the Rams have already been struggling against the run, I think they’ll be even more miserable facing an offense that has both the QB and RB in the backfield threatening to run consistently. It should benefit both players’ rushing stats.
Since Richardson is coming off a concussion injury, do the Colts want to put him in as many rushing situations? Maybe, maybe not.
But perhaps that will continue to lead to an excessive amount of handoffs for Moss, which naturally we would expect to benefit his rushing yards.
The reason I have not officially bet this is because betting over on props is always a tad riskier in general (injuries, personnel coaching decisions, etc). And, despite going over in his past two games, it’s still a high number and if the Colts end up trailing early then they may abandon the run.
I originally felt more conviction in Indianapolis at the beginning of this week, but have since strayed away from backing them.
If I’m betting a running back to go over his rushing props, then I’d prefer his team to be a sizable favorite in the game so that we’d have the expectation they’d be leading and then hone in on the ground attack to wind the clock down.
Unfortunately I’m just not sure I can fully rely on that with the Colts in this spot.
PLAYS:
Jags ML (-148)
Chiefs (-8.5)
Joe Burrow Over 259.5 Passing Yards (-113)
NFL record: 7-5-1 (+1.02)
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