We’re coming off a 2-1 (+.84) performance Friday night:
Braves -1.5 (+104) vs Rays; Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.04 Win
Hunter Brown Over 16.5 Outs (-125); Risk 1.00 unit to win .80 Win
Sean Manaea Under 4.5 Ks (-140); Risk 1.00 unit to win .71 Loss
I’m keeping today’s write-up on the shorter side and will get straight to the point with my plays for the day.
Phillies @ Orioles
Last night, Philadelphia was able to win in extras against Baltimore 5-3.
Today, the Orioles will look to rebound behind the arm of Grayson Rodriguez.
The right-hander posts a 3.27 ERA, a 3.52 xERA and an xFIP of 3.75.
He’s done well at limiting powerful contact with a hard hit percentage of 38.8% and a barrel rate of 7.6%. His xISO is listed at .166, too.
Conversely, the Phillies’ pitcher does not exude the same optimism.
Taijuan Walker has racked up an ERA of 5.40, an xERA of 5.76 and an xFIP of 4.77. His home-run-to-fly-ball ratio is 13% and has a low ground ball rate of 34.6%.
Furthermore, unlike Rodriguez, the Philly right-hander hasn’t limited strong contact. Walker’s hard hit percentage is 48% and his barrel rate is over 14%.
Also, his xwOBA resides at .373 and his xISO at .249.
This matchup could be a recipe for disaster considering the home team ranks first in ISO and 5th in wRC+ versus RHP.
I’m expecting Baltimore to even this series up by the end of the day.
Play: Orioles -1.5 (+125); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.25
Rays @ Braves
Ryan Pepiot should be considered as one of the top pitchers on today’s slate.
The Tampa Bay right-hander’s ERA floats above 4.00, however, his expected earned run average sits at 2.98 and his xFIP at 3.42.
He’s got a very low BABIP (.257), xwOBA (.277) and xISO (.164).
While I was rooting for the Braves offense to snap back into a rhythm last night, I’m pleading for the opposite today.
As I mentioned in yesterday’s article, since Ronald Acuna Jr. tore his ACL on May 26th, the Braves have ranked 27th in wRC+ (70) and 25th in OPS (.604) versus RHP.
Last night they put up sevens runs of damage on Zack Littell and the Rays.
I’m hoping they resort back to those poor stats versus Pepiot.
Simultaneously, I’m rooting for struggles throughout Tampa Bay’s lineup as well.
Their bats will face the 40-year-old Charlie Morton.
Morton’s xERA of 4.17, xFIP of 3.87 and xISO of .143 indicate the veteran can still produce quality outings.
That can absolutely be the case against a Ray’s lineup that sits dead last in ISO (.117) and 25th in wRC+ (92) against righties.
The reason I’m rooting for a boring, defensive-laden affair is because my bet is on the First Five Under 4.5 runs. Let’s hope for a pitcher’s duel at Truist Park.
Play: Rays / Braves First Five Under 4.5 (-105); Risk 1.05 units to win 1.00
Royals @ Dodgers
Los Angeles captured the first of this three-game series last night winning 4-3.
This evening they’ll send rookie Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the mound with hopes for another victory.
Yamamoto has lived up to the hype with his 3.00 ERA, 2.73 xFIP and strikeout-to-walk ratio of 23%.
Kansas City has hit fairly well against right-handers, boasting a wRC+ of 101 (12th) and an ISO of .160 (6th).
However, Yamamoto should be able to counter accordingly considering his xISO is .119 and his ground ball rate sits at 48.4%.
As we flip the script, it’s easy to have just as much admiration for Royals’ pitcher, Seth Lugo.
Lugo had been a revelation for KC up until his past two starts. He blew a 5-0 lead in Cleveland, surrendering five earned runs, then subsequently allowed four ER at home versus the Yankees.
Nevertheless, his ERA still remains toward the top of the charts at 2.36. His xERA, is 3.84 and his xFIP is 3.92. While those numbers aren’t bad, it explains why he’s regressed a bit.
He also has a higher xwOBA of .312 and will be facing a formidable Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd in both wRC+ (119) and ISO (.181) versus right-handed pitching.
A larger discrepancy between these two clubs resides in their respective relief staffs. Los Angeles ranks 2nd in bullpen ERA at 2.90 and Kansas City comes in 23rd with a 4.31 ERA.
I’ll be backing the better offense and pitching for this contest.
Play: Dodgers -1.5 (+106); Risk 1.00 units to win 1.06
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