7:20pm ET - Cardinals @ Braves
Seldom have we been able to say this, but the Braves have lost multiple games in a row.
To be fair it’s only been two games, but for Atlanta that might as well feel like four.
I love the fact they’ve dropped their past two spots, which includes last night's series opener against the Cardinals where they fell 10-6.
The Braves will be tossing their ace, Spencer Strider, on the bump to get them back in the W column.
Strider, as I’ve discussed numerous times the past couple of weeks, is in the battle for the NL Cy Young Award, and can boost his chances with a solid performance against St. Louis.
Since the All-Star Break, the Cardinals rank 11th against RHP in wRC+, wOBA and OPS.
In two career starts, Strider is 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA against St. Louis.
Here’s how his numbers are stacking up on the year, though:
3.56 ERA / 2.81 FIP / 2.76 SIERA
At home: 2.25 xFIP (3.48 xFIP on road)
On the other side, well, the Cardinals are dishing out RHP Dakota Hudson, who’s numbers are not quite the same to say the least:
4.02 ERA / 5.10 xERA / 5.05 FIP / 5.08 SIERA
Also, Hudson is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in three career appearances against the Braves, including two starts.
And since the ASB, Atlanta ranks 1st against RHP in wRC+, wOBA and OPS.
I’m not going to lie, the price is pretty egregious if you want to back the Braves. The best number on the -1.5 RL is -140.
But as I’ve alluded to before, during this stretch of the season you sometimes have to be willing to lay a bigger price on these runlines.
In situations such as this, you'll have teams that are in contention against opponents that may or may not be “mailing it in.”
Teams don’t blatantly tank in baseball, necessarily, but the mentality is certainly different. Especially when it’s a group filled with veterans that did not meet expectations this season - i.e., the Cardinals.
So despite the chalkier price on the home team, I’m willing to lay it in this instance. I don’t feel as confident in any other spots on today's board, but I do feel confident in the Braves ability to bounce back and for Strider to pad his stats against a weaker opponent this evening.
Play: Braves -1.5 (-140)
MLB Record: 75-64-1 (+1.51)
NL Cy Young Update
Speaking of Spencer Strider and his hopeful NL Cy Young campaign, let’s revisit the odds for these contenders as we make our mark into the month of September.
Here are the best odds on each pitcher and where you can find them in Illinois:
Snell: -200 (PointsBet)
Steele: +300 (FanDuel)
Strider: +550 (FanDuel)
Gallen: 35/1 (BetMGM)
Last week I previewed Strider’s big start in La La Land against the Dodgers.
It was looking very solid for the young righty, until MVP hopeful Mookie Betts pounded a ball over the fence to drive in three.
Despite that, Strider still ended up with the win after going 6.0 IP, allowing 4 ER on 4 hits, with 9 K’s and 2 walks.
Not quite the result we were hoping for to help his Cy Young case, but overall not too shabby against one of the best offenses in baseball.
Let’s hope he puts together a gem tonight against the Cards.
If there’s something we can hang our hats on for the time being, though, it’s how Gallen has completely fallen on the odds board and out of the race.
On this site, along with other programming, I stayed consistent on my prognoses with Gallen’s chances to win the award.
I've been a non-believer and, boy, I'm sure glad about that.
Gallen has surrendered 11 ER over his last two starts.
That should just about do it for his Cy Young aspirations. You can’t afford those type of outings at this point in the year, in back to back starts and against two respectable offenses in the Orioles and the Dodgers.
In terms of our next candidate - how about good ole Justin Steele? He’s been surging and finally getting the recognition he deserves.
Steele is coming off of his best career performance vs SF, where he went eight-scoreless innings while allowing just two hits. He also struck out 12 and walked only two batters.
Steele is tied with Strider for the most wins in baseball (16) and ranks 2nd in the league in ERA (2.55) only trailing Blake Snell (2.50).
In Snell’s last two starts, against the Cards and the Giants, he totaled 13.0 IP, allowed 5 hits and no earned runs.
So that is why you’ve seen a significant spike in Snell's odds to win this award.
Snell’s next start is a huge one, and hopefully helps our case with Strider. The southpaw will be down in Houston to face the red-hot Astros. Let’s hope they can put a mark on Snell.
As for Steele, as a Cubs fan I love the guy. But as a bettor I don’t see that much value in him right now. It’s taken so long for him to get his rightful respect and I’m fearful that the voters are so locked in on Snell and Strider, that Steele will end up neglected. I obviously don’t think that should be the case, but that is my concern.
Also, Steele had been getting dished out at way better prices before his prior start, so I don’t want to chase the steam.
If you don't mind chasing the movement, though, and you want to wager on him, I would do so before his next start. That upcoming outing will more than likely be at home (where he’s been outstanding) against the Diamondbacks. And, realistically speaking, he'll put together another quality performance.
Ultimately, I’m still going to be riding my Strider 8/1 ticket. And if you haven’t gotten involved in this market and are contemplating doing so, I still believe the best bang for your buck resides with Strider.
There’s no use in laying that big of a price on Snell, especially with his toughest opponent coming up in his next start.
And, unfortunately, I just don’t believe Steele will get as much recognition and credit as he deserves to end up victorious.
So let’s hope for a big night out of Strider.
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