I’m only doing one podcast episode this week due to being out of town, but, more than likely, next week I’ll be back to having a pair of shows distributed leading into the big game.
In the meantime, I did make an additional wager.
I bet both teams to record 1+ rushing touchdown (+130) at DraftKings.
As some of you may already know, I’ve already invested in both running backs to some degree:
Christian McCaffrey MVP (+650)
Isaiah Pacheco Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
And while scavenging each and every book for different prop opportunities - this one stood out to me.
Pacheco has recorded one rushing touchdown in each of the three playoff games. Conversely, the 49ers have allowed three rushing touchdowns (all to the Lions) in a span of two postseason games. But, as I noted earlier this week in my synopsis with betting Pacheco over his rushing yards, San Francisco hasn’t just recently been poor against the run - it’s been a common theme all year.
During the regular season, defensively, the 49ers ranked 26th in rush EPA and 24th in rush success rate. Over their last two games it’s gotten much worse as they have surrendered 5.6 yards per carry.
Considering Pacheco has been a main source of this Kansas City offense, and understanding the vulnerability of the San Francisco run defense, why wouldn’t we expect him to get ample opportunities in the red zone?
As for CMC, well - his numbers speak for himself. However, if you needed more validation, let’s acknowledge that McCaffrey has scored two rushing touchdowns in both of the playoff games and has accumulated a total of 14 in a span of 18 games played this year.
The Chiefs also feature a weaker run defense, as they finished their regular season 28th in rush EPA, 17th in DVOA against the run and 15th in rush success rate.
To be honest, it hasn’t mattered what the opposition has looked like - CMC has had no issue finding a way into the end zone via a handoff.
In my mind this is a better alternative to betting either of these starting tailback’s anytime touchdown prop. CMC is laying anywhere north of -200, and Pacheco is listed over -130. Plus, this gives us the opportunity to still cash even if for some reason one of them is not the player who scores the rushing touchdown.
Play: Both Teams to Record 1+ Rushing Touchdown (+130); Risk 1.00 unit to win 1.30
Pending Super Bowl Plays:
Christian McCaffrey SB MVP (+650)
Isaiah Pacheco Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Both Teams to Record 1+ Rushing Touchdowns (+130)
NFL Record: 43-32-1 (+7.16)
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