Week 2 plays I've made / discussed:
Alexander Mattison Under 51.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Win
6pt Teaser - Bills (-2.5) / Cowboys (-2.5) Pending
*If you have to select a 6.5-point teaser instead of a 6, and the price is not too egregious - I would still play the teaser. Make sure you get both teams under the key number of 3.*
Added Play:
Broncos -3.5 vs Commanders
Washington looked very sloppy against what could be the worst team in the league. And yes I understand - it was the first week, there is going to be a lot to improve on after each game when you have a new, young QB.
But, ultimately, I didn't see all too much that I was fond of out of this Commanders team, along with QB Sam Howell in their opening performance. And I'm not preparing for a breakout effort from them heading into Week 2.
And that shouldn't come as a surprise to myself - heck, I bet them under 6.5 wins on the year. So this is actually how I was expecting to feel regarding this Washington squad.
Sam Howell's CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected) after Week 1 was -6.8.
Meaning he completed 6.8% less passes than he should've.
Russell Wilson, for example, finished the first week at the top of the charts with a CPOE of 15%, which would mean he completed 15% more passes than he was expected to in that given situation.
Now does that signal regression is coming? Perhaps. But, it's still a good sign for Wilson, especially after the debacle of a season he endured last year.
Plus, Wilson had a success rate of 51.2% (7th) and Howell finished at 40% (21st).
Granted, Wilson's aDOT (average depth of target) was only 4.2, compared to Howell's, which was 7.5.
The big difference for this week will be the addition of WR Jerry Jeudy.
Jeudy missed Week 1 due to a hamstring injury, however, he was a full participant at practice this past week. Jeudy's presence will loom large and beneficial to Wilson's passing efforts.
Another factor that aids the side of the home team in this matchup is the coaching advantage. Give me Sean Payton over Ron Rivera any day of the week.
Denver will be eager to attain their first win of the season and they should be set up nicely to do so against a seemingly discombobulated offense in the Washington Commanders.
Play: Broncos (-3.5)
Plays I'm Waiting on due to Potential Market Movements:
Brian Robinson Under 55.5 Rushing Yards
Saints -3 @ Panthers
With those two plays I'm holding back in case I see a higher number on Robinson's prop and then if we get New Orleans under the key number of three - or an affordable moneyline price.
I will update that before kickoff if anything is added.
Survivor Selections:
Keeping it short and sweet...
With two entries surviving, I'm using the Bills as one selection for more of my safety net. Buffalo will bounce back against an inferior opponent. Josh Allen will clean up some of those mistakes and the Bills will look fine.
As for my other selection, I'm rolling with the team discussed above.
Yeah, sheesh.
After last year, who would've thought that I'd want to trust Russell Wilson and the Broncos in Week 2 as a survivor selection. But, for the reason stated above - I think Denver is in a great matchup and I think it would be very nice to use them here, not have to worry about them again and save a team like Buffalo for some point down the road.
Please don't do me dirty, Denver.
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